Economic outlook 2014: how optimistic are you?

Bry Nylon · Dec 3, 2013

Well, all the indicators seem to be suggesting that the UK economy will enjoy a decent level of sustained growth through 2014. But how confident are you that you will benefit from the upturn? Are you confident enough to start spending more? Or is any decent level of disposable income just a distant memory from 2007?

For me it does feel like that things are taking a turn for the better and I have started spending a bit more after a few hard years of make-do and mend austerity, although the energy bills don't exactly help.

vegster · Dec 3, 2013

I'm self employed and as such my work has been cut back due to people cutting down and saving money .However I work alongside employed staff from time to time and most of them have not had a pay rise at all or very few below inflation increases.

Do the maths, over about the last 5 years inflation has caused increases of about 18% in the cost of living so, most of us have little or no disposable income. Otherwise the likes of Primark, Sports Direct, Aldi, Lidl and numerous Pound Lands would not be expanding and opening ever more branches. The majority of people simply do not have any money and don't have the opportunity to earn more.

Cheshire Cat · Dec 3, 2013

Very pessimistic - huge public spending cuts and job losses imminent

Bry Nylon · Dec 3, 2013

Cheshire Cat said:
Very pessimistic - huge public spending cuts and job losses imminent

Very possibly. Now the indicators are pointing in the right direction I think we can brace ourselves for more of the same medicine and will simply be told to suck it up.

For what it is worth I believe the political / economic landscape in 2014 will be dominated by the big influx of Romanians and Bulgarians post January 1st, and the pressure that will cause for the provision of public services and the deflationary effect on wages in the semi and unskilled labour market - particularly in eastern and southern England. I can see UKIP making further dramatic inroads as a result in the south, which could have the unintended net effect of returning a Labour administration in 2015.

Interesting times ahead.

Westdene Seagull · Dec 3, 2013

For me the scariest part of a recovery will be the interest rates going up.

worthingseagull123 · Dec 3, 2013

Cheshire Cat said:
Very pessimistic - huge public spending cuts and job losses imminent

This.

jakarta · Dec 3, 2013

Can only speak for myself but I constantly review how my business has gone since the recession started in 2007.

It is quite clear that turnover has slowly increased every year with the vast majority of my (admittedly private sector manufacturing SME) Clients still in business.

Despite all of the drama queens who post about meltdown and apocalypse on here I suspect the UK Economy will do better than most of the rest of the EU in the next year or so.

vegster · Dec 3, 2013

jakarta said:
Can only speak for myself but I constantly review how my business has gone since the recession started in 2007.

It is quite clear that turnover has slowly increased every year with the vast majority of my (admittedly private sector manufacturing SME) Clients still in business.

Despite all of the drama queens who post about meltdown and apocalypse on here I suspect the UK Economy will do better than most of the rest of the EU in the next year or so.

What is SME and can anyone make it ? Is it a legal high and is it liable to be banned soon ?

Herr Tubthumper · Dec 3, 2013

jakarta said:
I suspect the UK Economy will do better than most of the rest of the EU in the next year or so.

In the land of the blind etc etc.

jakarta · Dec 3, 2013

vegster said:
What is SME and can anyone make it ? Is it a legal high and is it liable to be banned soon ?

Small and Medium Enterprise - which I suspect you knew anyway. Thanks for such a thoughtful critique of my post :thumbsup:

jakarta · Dec 3, 2013

Herr Tubthumper said:
In the land of the blind etc etc.

Do you really think Greece, Portugal, Spain & Italy etc. will outstrip the UK economically in 2014? Land of the blind indeed......

vegster · Dec 3, 2013

jakarta said:
Small and Medium Enterprise - which I suspect you knew anyway. Thanks for such a thoughtful critique of my post

Honestly never heard of it. But I'm a worker ant as it were rather than a businessman.

Herr Tubthumper · Dec 3, 2013

jakarta said:
Do you really think Greece, Portugal, Spain & Italy etc. will outstrip the UK economically in 2014? Land of the blind indeed......

No. This is precisely my point. I'm sure the UK will perform better than Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Cypus, Estonia etc. It's like saying a C5 is faster than a skate board; it might but it's still pretty damn slow.

Dandyman · Dec 3, 2013

Below inflation pay rise (if at all) will mean a further decline in the real value of my wages and a continued decline in my living standards. The same, I suspect, will apply to most of the country.

On the other hand the various spivs who fund the current government will continue to rake it in, so that's all right then.

vegster · Dec 3, 2013

Dandyman said:
Below inflation pay rise (if at all) will mean a further decline in the real value of my wages and a continued decline in my living standards. The same, I suspect, will apply to most of the country.

On the other hand the various spivs who fund the current government will continue to rake it in, so that's all right then.

Pretty much this. The economy will pick up slowly but there will be no trickle down effect to the people on minimum wage for a few years. Employers will still wave the big stick and say the recovery is still "fragile " and, that times are still hard....etc etc. So the only aspiration for many people is the hope of getting a job on a "living wage " rather than a minimum wage.

Uncle C · Dec 3, 2013

For me the best part of the recovery will be interest rates going up.

Beach Hut · Dec 3, 2013

Uncle C said:
For me the best part of the recovery will be interest rates going up.

Unfortunately at that point the economy may well crash, most people have budgeted for low interest rates so any rise will be a disaster in waiting.

jakarta · Dec 3, 2013

Beach Hut said:
Unfortunately at that point the economy may well crash, most people have budgeted for low interest rates so any rise will be a disaster in waiting.

Yes, a half or one per cent rise in interest rates (which is all we will get in next couple of years) will cause rioting in the streets - what a joke - they went up to around 15% in the 1980's and 1990's when I got on the property ladder.

As I posted earlier - drama queens everywhere you look

Beach Hut · Dec 3, 2013

jakarta said:
Yes, a half or one per cent rise in interest rates (which is all we will get in next couple of years) will cause rioting in the streets - what a joke - they went up to around 15% in the 1980's and 1990's when I got on the property ladder.

As I posted earlier - drama queens everywhere you look

I remember those days of 15% as well as only have a few years left on mine, the expectation is low and people have budgeted that way these days

Shropshire Seagull · Dec 3, 2013

jakarta said:
Small and Medium Enterprise - which I suspect you knew anyway. Thanks for such a thoughtful critique of my post

Can also be Subject Matter Expert(s) - depending on the context used, you have to work it out.

Its fair to say that SMEs often have SMEs working for them, but they are not manufactured overnight [disappointed Vegster?].

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Economic outlook 2014: how optimistic are you?

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