Now, if you are a betting man...

Codner's Wallop · Nov 4, 2013

We are still 12-1 for promotion (with Stan James).

I think that offers terrific value.

My case for the ker-ching:

1) We are currently five points adrift of the play-off places; 12 points from automatic. May sound a lot (the latter, but consider there are still 96 POINTS TO PLAY FOR).

2) We are still hovering mid-table despite a horrible and unprecedented run of injuries. At the least, Orlandi, Lua Lua and Ulloa are returning in the upcoming weeks. As for Bridcutt, who knows?

3) Our rookies, JFC and Ince, are gaining vital match-time and should improve as the season progresses.

4) Lita is looking a promising addition. May also sign in January.

5) FFP penalties/fears may destabilise some of the naughty big spenders.

6) OG clearly has a plan. And an interesting one at that. Players should start to collectively fit the OG mould. His emphasis on pace, movement and pressing the opposition in their own half, should pay dividends in the end. Seems a decent bloke. Unlikely to smack his head on any invisible ceilings.

7) There are always at least one or two 'late runners' who string together an impressive run of post Christmas wins. See Reading, Them, Bolton etc. We can be one of them.

8) CMS may even return in the New Year.

9) We haven't flogged TB's family silver for a bunch of indolent, greedy ex-Premier League show ponies, distracted by their next close season moves. In February.

10) Forest, Reading and Wigan are all 7-2. FOUR times more likely to get promoted than we are. Apparently.

There are many more reasons but I'm scared I'll cause a few aneurisms among the NSC depressives...

Mellotron · Nov 4, 2013

Not a terrible shout. If we get much longer odds-wise I might HAVE to get involved.

Sad about my previous bet for Ulloa top scorer this season, as I'm guessing a few others are.

Simster · Nov 4, 2013

Optimism has returned because we beat Doncaster. If you don't know already, Donny are shit, much like Yeovil, Sheff Wed and Millwall, none of whom we managed to beat.

Realistically, I think automatic has already gone. We do have senior players returning so I suppose the play-offs can't be ruled out, but I still think we'll do well to finish above 9th or 10th.

Mellotron · Nov 4, 2013

Simster said:
Optimism has returned because we beat Doncaster. If you don't know already, Donny are shit, much like Yeovil, Sheff Wed and Millwall, none of whom we managed to beat.

Realistically, I think automatic has already gone. We do have senior players returning so I suppose the play-offs can't be ruled out, but I still think we'll do well to finish above 9th or 10th.

With an INSANE amount of injuries we're ONE point below 9th. I think you're being very pessimistic Sim. When all are fit we have one of the best first teams in the division, as shown quite a few times last season.

Arthur · Nov 4, 2013

Simster said:
Optimism has returned because we beat Doncaster. If you don't know already, Donny are shit, much like Yeovil, Sheff Wed and Millwall, none of whom we managed to beat.

Realistically, I think automatic has already gone. We do have senior players returning so I suppose the play-offs can't be ruled out, but I still think we'll do well to finish above 9th or 10th.

You can always guaranty the mood of posts based on what we do the previous weekend. If we win (especially away) we're going to win the league. If we lose/draw (especially at home) we're doomed to relegation!

I never back Brighton or lay Palace for anything as I know I'll be betting with my heart and not my head. Good luck to all those who indulge though.

Simster · Nov 4, 2013

Mellotron said:
With an INSANE amount of injuries we're ONE point below 9th. I think you're being very pessimistic Sim. When all are fit we have one of the best first teams in the division, as shown quite a few times last season.

How is that relevant? The relevant bit is that we are five points adrift of 6th having played a third of the season - neither Wigan or Watford are in the top six yet they're closer than we are, so IMO even if we can overtake a couple of the top 6, we are still going to struggle to finish above the other 4 in the top six and those two sides.

Mo Gosfield · Nov 4, 2013

Agreed..not the worst shout in the world, as I am convinced we will finish the season strongly. Amidst all the doom and gloom, a lot of fans seem to have overlooked the fact that we have only lost twice in the last 12 games, amassing 18 points. Even averaging that over the remainder of the season will give us 66 points. You have to expect a ten point improvement over that, with our bigger players back and that will be enough for play-offs.
If it was 16-1, I would be on it in a flash. I suspect that 12's is as good as its going to get, so its decision time folks.

Mellotron · Nov 4, 2013

Simster said:
How is that relevant? The relevant bit is that we are five points adrift of 6th having played a third of the season - neither Wigan or Watford are in the top six yet they're closer than we are, so IMO even if we can overtake a couple of the top 6, we are still going to struggle to finish above the other 4 in the top six and those two sides.

It's completely relevant because we've pretty much achieved already what you think we can do "at best", yet our team is going to be about 2-3 times stronger in the 2nd half of the season. I think it's perfectly realistic to think somewhere between 5th-8th, you know how insane the Championship is.

Codner's Wallop · Nov 4, 2013

Arthur said:
You can always guaranty the mood of posts based on what we do the previous weekend. If we win (especially away) we're going to win the league. If we lose/draw (especially at home) we're doomed to relegation!

I never back Brighton or lay Palace for anything as I know I'll be betting with my heart and not my head. Good luck to all those who indulge though.

Er...I think a few of us have been positive about the team for a weeks despite some poor performances. We like OG and factor in the crazy pile of injured players. Nothing knee-jerk here....

Mellotron · Nov 4, 2013

Codner's Wallop said:
Er...I think a few of us have been positive about the team for a weeks despite some poor performances. We like OG and factor in the crazy pile of injured players. Nothing knee-jerk here....

This. The dirty win against Donny only reinforced my previously held beliefs about our team's chances and Oscar's managerial ability. Also the 2nd half against a very good Watford team who would've fully expected to win.

edna krabappel · Nov 4, 2013

I'm personally feeling a fair bit more optimistic (not necessarily about promotion, just that our season won't be a total disaster) because of Spanish Dave's free kick on Saturday

It took him one goal to get going last season, and he was largely excellent after that. If that free kick against Doncaster is all it takes him to step up to the plate again, then that's already like having a new player in the side. His reaction to that goal- legging it all the way to the dugout to leap on the bench team- spoke volumes, it was great to see.

That, and I do think that the last two performances have shown a bit of spirit and guts- Watford was a good point under the circumstances, and we could easily have sat back after Doncaster equalised and thought "here we go again", but instead we went out and scored a couple of goals. I like to think the players are getting what Oscar is trying to do with them now, the fight seems to be back in the team, and (importantly) the fans have generally showed a bit of patience as well, which is hugely important.

We're completely under the radar of the top six currently and I don't mind that at all. Can't wait for the next game :clap2:

somerset · Nov 4, 2013

edna krabappel said:
I'm personally feeling a fair bit more optimistic (not necessarily about promotion, just that our season won't be a total disaster) because of Spanish Dave's free kick on Saturday

It took him one goal to get going last season, and he was largely excellent after that. If that free kick against Doncaster is all it takes him to step up to the plate again, then that's already like having a new player in the side. His reaction to that goal- legging it all the way to the dugout to leap on the bench team- spoke volumes, it was great to see.

That, and I do think that the last two performances have shown a bit of spirit and guts- Watford was a good point under the circumstances, and we could easily have sat back after Doncaster equalised and thought "here we go again", but instead we went out and scored a couple of goals. I like to think the players are getting what Oscar is trying to do with them now, the fight seems to be back in the team, and (importantly) the fans have generally showed a bit of patience as well, which is hugely important.

We're completely under the radar of the top six currently and I don't mind that at all. Can't wait for the next game

I like the cut of your jib missus, your post in itself has left me with a positive vibe, can't disagree with any of it.

Arthur · Nov 4, 2013

Codner's Wallop said:
Er...I think a few of us have been positive about the team for a weeks despite some poor performances. We like OG and factor in the crazy pile of injured players. Nothing knee-jerk here....

Wasn't a dig at you personally it just seems that the wins bring out the glass half full folk where as the defeats bring out the glass half empty folk.

Simster · Nov 4, 2013

Mellotron said:
It's completely relevant because we've pretty much achieved already what you think we can do "at best", yet our team is going to be about 2-3 times stronger in the 2nd half of the season. I think it's perfectly realistic to think somewhere between 5th-8th, you know how insane the Championship is.

Firstly, I would dispute this idea that have achieved what I think we can do "at best". We are where we are - 12th. You wouldn't have come out with that statement last week when we were floundering in 16th place. Two points separate 9th from 15th, and we are bang in the middle. If we lose or draw on Saturday, we'll be in the bottom half.

But 5th-8th you say? Well, yes I suppose so. 6th would be an excellent effort, but I'm looking at the league table wondering which of the 6 sides above us we could realistically overtake. I think 3 or 4 (Blackpool, Leeds, Blackburn) are possible, but not six...

Mo Gosfield · Nov 4, 2013

edna krabappel said:
I'm personally feeling a fair bit more optimistic (not necessarily about promotion, just that our season won't be a total disaster) because of Spanish Dave's free kick on Saturday

It took him one goal to get going last season, and he was largely excellent after that. If that free kick against Doncaster is all it takes him to step up to the plate again, then that's already like having a new player in the side. His reaction to that goal- legging it all the way to the dugout to leap on the bench team- spoke volumes, it was great to see.

That, and I do think that the last two performances have shown a bit of spirit and guts- Watford was a good point under the circumstances, and we could easily have sat back after Doncaster equalised and thought "here we go again", but instead we went out and scored a couple of goals. I like to think the players are getting what Oscar is trying to do with them now, the fight seems to be back in the team, and (importantly) the fans have generally showed a bit of patience as well, which is hugely important.

We're completely under the radar of the top six currently and I don't mind that at all. Can't wait for the next game

Under the radar is how I like it. OG quietly going about his business under very difficult circumstances. Nicking the odd win here or there, not losing too many. The framework in place, the confidence starting to seep back in.
Neither Burnley or Blackpool guaranteed to stay up there. Reading and Forest inconsistent. Watford missing their two best players from last season and Wigan yet to get going. QPR and Leicester look the two to beat.
Where does that leave us? I would suggest that anything between 8th and 4th/5th is still achievable.

Mellotron · Nov 4, 2013

Simster said:
Firstly, I would dispute this idea that have achieved what I think we can do "at best". We are where we are - 12th. You wouldn't have come out with that statement last week when we were floundering in 16th place. Two points separate 9th from 15th, and we are bang in the middle. If we lose or draw on Saturday, we'll be in the bottom half.

But 5th-8th you say? Well, yes I suppose so. 6th would be an excellent effort, but I'm looking at the league table wondering which of the 6 sides above us we could realistically overtake. I think 3 or 4 (Blackpool, Leeds, Blackburn) are possible, but not six...

I think 6-7th would be roughly par, with a better squad than last season but worse injuries and a new manager.

Codner's Wallop · Nov 4, 2013

Arthur said:
Wasn't a dig at you personally it just seems that the wins bring out the glass half full folk where as the defeats bring out the glass half empty folk.

Fair enough. But my point is: it doesn't need a few defeats to bring out the glass half empties. You can't fill up their 'glasses' even if we're top of the table. Once a Seagull depressive, always a Seagull depressive*

* but not suggesting you are one of them BTW.

nwgull · Nov 4, 2013

Arthur said:
You can always guaranty the mood of posts based on what we do the previous weekend. If we win (especially away) we're going to win the league. If we lose/draw (especially at home) we're doomed to relegation!

I never back Brighton or lay Palace for anything as I know I'll be betting with my heart and not my head. Good luck to all those who indulge though.

I've bet a fiver against Palace every week this year; it's been my best season ever of football betting wins so far.

Simster · Nov 4, 2013

Mellotron said:
I think 6-7th would be roughly par, with a better squad than last season but worse injuries and a new manager.

I'd have felt a lot more confident if we'd put away some of the crap sides so far. It cost us an automatic place last season, and will probably cost us a play-off place this time round. That's what made Saturday so pleasing.

MattBackHome · Nov 4, 2013

Simster said:
Realistically, I think automatic has already gone. We do have senior players returning so I suppose the play-offs can't be ruled out, but I still think we'll do well to finish above 9th or 10th.

I think you're wrong. This time last year, Hull were on 18 pts from 14.

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