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First sub 2 hour marathon



Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
With yesterday's breaking of the marathon world record the time is now down to 02:03:23. I wonder how long it will be before we see the first sub-2 hour record? Some crude (and linear) extrapolation from the 1985 time suggests 28 years. But this possibly ignores advances in science etc. Hopefully it will be in my life time.
 




Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,110
Surrey
2:03 is already an absolutely mental time. I'm sure 2 hours will be broken some day, but not in my lifetime.
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
2:03 is already an absolutely mental time. I'm sure 2 hours will be broken some day, but not in my lifetime.

Agree it's mental. 4.70 minute mile-ing for 2 hours. I reckon it will be in my life time.
 


nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
13,653
Manchester
Agree it's mental. 4.70 minute mile-ing for 2 hours. I reckon it will be in my life time.

I don't know your age but I'd say it's very unlikely. To take 3 mins 23s off the current world record would mean running each mile 7.8s quicker. It doesn't sound much but at that pace it would mean extending a lead of 47m every mile on someone running the same race at the current world record pace. That's huge.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
I don't know your age but I'd say it's very unlikely. To take 3 mins 23s off the current world record would mean running each mile 7.8s quicker. It doesn't sound much but at that pace it would mean extending a lead of 47m every mile on someone running the same race at the current world record pace. That's huge.

It was 02:07:12 in 1985. Today it's 02:03:23. Another 28 years for another 03:49? I appreciate this is crude but within my lifetime seems within the bounds of reality.
 


Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
14,747
If you extrapolate it further back, how long did it take to cut the same amount of time before 1985? I reckon it could be fewer than 28 years, but nearly four minutes is a lot to lose over 26.2 miles. I'd love to see it though.
 






knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
12,948
I think you are right. 28 years and it will be under 3 hours. Being 82 years old then, I hope I will be around to see it or have seen it. Plus realise I have seen it!
 




hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
I think it will absolutely happen, and a lot sooner than people are suggesting. Bear in mind that there is no true 'World Record' in the marathon - due to the different conditions inherent in each marathon route, there is only a 'World Best'. What I think will happen, is that when the 2 hour barrier gets seriously threatened (let's say 2.01.50 for argument's sake) then there will be a big element of competition between the race hosts, to be the one that witnesses the breakthrough.

At that point, they will start to devise optimum routes / conditions, to make the feat more achievable. If athletes can run 2.04.00 over tarmac and cobbles, with undulating surfaces, and uphill sections, then what could they do over the requisite distance, run on track-like conditions, with no gradients, no wind, etc.
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
49,989
Goldstone
I think it will absolutely happen, and a lot sooner than people are suggesting. Bear in mind that there is no true 'World Record' in the marathon - due to the different conditions inherent in each marathon route, there is only a 'World Best'. What I think will happen, is that when the 2 hour barrier gets seriously threatened (let's say 2.01.50 for argument's sake) then there will be a big element of competition between the race hosts, to be the one that witnesses the breakthrough.

At that point, they will start to devise optimum routes / conditions, to make the feat more achievable. If athletes can run 2.04.00 over tarmac and cobbles, with undulating surfaces, and uphill sections, then what could they do over the requisite distance, run on track-like conditions, with no gradients, no wind, etc.
Good points.
 


Vegas Seagull

New member
Jul 10, 2009
7,782
Are these records invalidated for 'following wind' like the sprints... If not, if someone set a course from say Ferring to The Marina & waited for a warm 40mph Sou'wester that could do it
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
Are these records invalidated for 'following wind' like the sprints... If not, if someone set a course from say Ferring to The Marina & waited for a warm 40mph Sou'wester that could do it

Courses have to ratified for WR status and the criteria seeks to negate wind assistance by stipulating a course cannot start and end more than a set distance apart. The idea being the course has to double back on itself and any wind assistance/resistance balances out. Of the 5 Marathon Majors, Boston does not have this ratification; it is a "point-to-point" course with an excessive net elevation drop and the 2:03:02 clocked in 2011 does not stand as a world record. There was a string tail wind that day and the course is pretty much a straight line.
 




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
I think it will absolutely happen, and a lot sooner than people are suggesting. Bear in mind that there is no true 'World Record' in the marathon - due to the different conditions inherent in each marathon route, there is only a 'World Best'. What I think will happen, is that when the 2 hour barrier gets seriously threatened (let's say 2.01.50 for argument's sake) then there will be a big element of competition between the race hosts, to be the one that witnesses the breakthrough.

At that point, they will start to devise optimum routes / conditions, to make the feat more achievable. If athletes can run 2.04.00 over tarmac and cobbles, with undulating surfaces, and uphill sections, then what could they do over the requisite distance, run on track-like conditions, with no gradients, no wind, etc.

Interesting points. Are indoor 100m records viewed the same as outdoor records? Or are they seperate? Is one seen as more 'real' than another?
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
73,371
West west west Sussex
The thread title lit a bulb over my head.

There is some science about this, that generated a thread.
Sadly I can't find it now, while searching 'marathon'.

The caveat to this has to be the suspicion of doping surrounding sub-Saharan athletics.
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
Interesting points. Are indoor 100m records viewed the same as outdoor records? Or are they seperate? Is one seen as more 'real' than another?

There are very few 100m indoor tracks, so no serious competition takes place (the indoor sprint is 60m). Any other distance, because the indoor track is half the size (200m circuit rather than 400m), the additional tight bend running involved, means that the indoor and outdoor equivalents are considered quite separate events. Similarly in swimming - there are 2 distinct sets of WRs for the same distances, swum in 25m / 50m pools, because the short course racing involves double the number of tumble turns.

In athletics, a time run on a full (400m) sized track under a roof, would count as a 'proper' WR though.
 


Greg Bobkin

Silver Seagull
May 22, 2012
14,747
Courses have to ratified for WR status and the criteria seeks to negate wind assistance by stipulating a course cannot start and end more than a set distance apart. The idea being the course has to double back on itself and any wind assistance/resistance balances out. Of the 5 Marathon Majors, Boston does not have this ratification; it is a "point-to-point" course with an excessive net elevation drop and the 2:03:02 clocked in 2011 does not stand as a world record. There was a string tail wind that day and the course is pretty much a straight line.

That answers a question I was going to ask, namely could someone set a marathon record around a standard 400m track? Given the 'rules' above that's a no-no, but it would be interesting to see how long it would take someone to complete 26.2 miles of the same course, and compare the time with that set on a 'typical' marathon route.
 




chimneys

Well-known member
Jun 11, 2007
3,582
That answers a question I was going to ask, namely could someone set a marathon record around a standard 400m track? Given the 'rules' above that's a no-no, but it would be interesting to see how long it would take someone to complete 26.2 miles of the same course, and compare the time with that set on a 'typical' marathon route.

105 or so times around the track. Not only extremely tedious but would have to specially train to cope with permanent left leaning around bends!
 


soistes

Well-known member
Sep 12, 2012
2,643
Brighton
With yesterday's breaking of the marathon world record the time is now down to 02:03:23. I wonder how long it will be before we see the first sub-2 hour record? Some crude (and linear) extrapolation from the 1985 time suggests 28 years. But this possibly ignores advances in science etc. Hopefully it will be in my life time.


I think it could take some time. Sunday's conditions were pretty much perfect, on the fastest course in the world, and we're talking about a fairly small group of athletes who can even get close. It was astonishing how much the Kenyans dominated the race and how much faster they were than the rest of the field.
Thought it was a cracking event, amazing to watch. I went over to watch my son who was running in it after doing a couple of Brighton marathons. Also managed to take in my first Bundesliga match (Hertha Berlin vs Mainz) on Saturday -- didn't think the standard of play was any higher than an average championship match tbh, but the Olympic stadium was amazing as was the atmosphere generated by the home fans, and it was great to be able to bring your beers into the stadium (they even had guys walking down the aisles of the stadium dispensing draft Warsteiner from backpack barrels). Hertha play in blue and white stripes, so our instinctive cheers occurred at the right moments (they won 3-1).
 



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