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A current ongoing betting debate



Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,667
West west west Sussex
What would the 'real world' odds of naming the full final Premier League table.

Clearly you're not going to get, 20 factorial 2,432,902,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1.

Bearing in mind the predictable nature of the league, (bar the one rogue team that's going to stuff it all up anyway) it shouldn't be too difficult to get reasonably close.

The top 6, bottom 6, and middle 8, very nearly pick themselves, someone ought to be able to get pretty close.


Alternatively I'd like to meet the Nostradamus who could even get half of the Championship placed correctly.
 






T soprano

T soprano

New member
Oct 27, 2011
8,018
Posh end of Shoreham
Stat Brother said:
What would the 'real world' odds of naming the full final Premier League table.

Clearly you're not going to get, 20 factorial 2,432,902,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1.

Bearing in mind the predictable nature of the league, (bar the one rogue team that's going to stuff it all up anyway) it shouldn't be too difficult to get reasonably close.

The top 6, bottom 6, and middle 8, very nearly pick themselves, someone ought to be able to get pretty close.


Alternatively I'd like to meet the Nostradamus who could even get half of the Championship placed correctly.
Click to expand...

I can quite safely predict who will end up 20th in the prem next season:whistle:
 








V

Vegas Seagull

New member
Jul 10, 2009
7,782
Stat Brother said:
What would the 'real world' odds of naming the full final Premier League table.

Clearly you're not going to get, 20 factorial 2,432,902,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1.

Bearing in mind the predictable nature of the league, (bar the one rogue team that's going to stuff it all up anyway) it shouldn't be too difficult to get reasonably close.

The top 6, bottom 6, and middle 8, very nearly pick themselves, someone ought to be able to get pretty close.


Alternatively I'd like to meet the Nostradamus who could even get half of the Championship placed correctly.
Click to expand...

Go for it, I'll give you £1000 to a pint of Harvey's
 


Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,667
West west west Sussex
Ulloa's Soul Patch said:
Every year I try and get like five wrong. West Brom really tripped me up last year
Click to expand...
That one rogue team is clearly the issue, and the reason why the bet is up there with winning the lottery, although the bookies would never represent that.
 


K

knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
12,965
Ulloa's Soul Patch said:
Every year I try and get like five wrong. West Brom really tripped me up last year
Click to expand...

I do not believe it. I do not even think you could tip the top four in order or the bottom four in order. Please print your Premier league prediction now and we will see where we are next May. No problem as you do it every year anyway.
 






P

Postman Pat

Well-known member
Jul 24, 2007
6,971
Coldean
Tricky Dicky said:
This almost begs for an NSC comp. 3 points for every team correctly placed, 1 point for being one out ??
Click to expand...

1 point per position out, lowest score wins. I.E. predict Palace to win the league and they finish last = 20 points, Villa to finish 16 and they finish 15th = 1 point.
 


yxee

yxee

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2011
2,521
Manchester
They'd probably quote you 10,000:1 or something daft (i.e. short)

Splitting it into 3 subleagues (top 6, middle 8, bottom 6) shortens the odds to 6!8!6!*p where p is the probability that your leagues are correctly divided. If you know for a fact what the top 6/bottom6/middle 8 will be that's still a 1 in 20 billion chance of guessing correctly.

This looks like a gold mine for the bookies, it's one of those interesting things to bet on that's far less statistically likely than most people realise at first glance. I think they could give you odds of a million to one and still make profit.
 






patchamalbion

patchamalbion

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,011
brighton
knocky1 said:
I do not believe it. I do not even think you could tip the top four in order or the bottom four in order. Please print your Premier league prediction now and we will see where we are next May. No problem as you do it every year anyway.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. Sorry but I just don't believe you.
 


crodonilson

crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
13,524
Lyme Regis
Stat Brother said:
What would the 'real world' odds of naming the full final Premier League table.

Clearly you're not going to get, 20 factorial 2,432,902,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1.

Bearing in mind the predictable nature of the league, (bar the one rogue team that's going to stuff it all up anyway) it shouldn't be too difficult to get reasonably close.

The top 6, bottom 6, and middle 8, very nearly pick themselves, someone ought to be able to get pretty close.


Alternatively I'd like to meet the Nostradamus who could even get half of the Championship placed correctly.
Click to expand...

Try it, I guarantee you'll make a fool of yourself.
 




hans kraay fan club

hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,295
Chandlers Ford
Stat Brother said:
What would the 'real world' odds of naming the full final Premier League table.

Clearly you're not going to get, 20 factorial 2,432,902,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1.
Click to expand...

And nor should you. That figure is based on pure mathematical probability - i.e. on an assumption that each one of the 20 objects (teams) has an equal chance of any one of 20 eventualities (league places). That's very clearly not the case - the likelihood of Man Utd finishing 1st, is not the same as finishing 20th, etc.

Start making some very sound assumtions, and those theoretical odds come tumbling down. e.g. if you take it as 'fact' that Man Utd will finish top 5, then the odds drop to 1/4 of what you've quoted. Assume the same for Chelsea and they drop to 1/16th. Add a 'fact' that both Palace and Hull will finish bottom half and you are down to 1/64th. Man City and Arsenal top 7? Down to 1/576th of the original figure. And so on.

So yes to predict the lot would be insanely massive long odds, it wouldn't be nearly as long as you suggest.
 


Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,667
West west west Sussex
crodonilson said:
Try it, I guarantee you'll make a fool of yourself.
Click to expand...
It's odd because on the one hand it's 2,432,902,000,000,000,000,000, 000 to 1 impossible, I get that.

But Utd, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, then maybe, Swansea, West Brom, Southampton & West Ham, aren't going to finish in the bottom 10.

&

Palace, Hull, Sunderland, and then, Newcastle, Cardiff, Stoke, Norwich, Fulham, Everton & Villa, aren't going to finish in the top 10.


So of the 20 positions, divided into 3 sub sections, it's only the middle 8 to 10 places that are a proper gamble, which you'd take on if it proper stoooopid unbelievable odds.
 








W

willyfantastic

New member
Mar 1, 2009
2,368
Stat Brother said:
It's odd because on the one hand it's 2,432,902,000,000,000,000,000, 000 to 1 impossible, I get that.

But Utd, Chelsea, City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs, then maybe, Swansea, West Brom, Southampton & West Ham, aren't going to finish in the bottom 10.

&

Palace, Hull, Sunderland, and then, Newcastle, Cardiff, Stoke, Norwich, Fulham, Everton & Villa, aren't going to finish in the top 10.


So of the 20 positions, divided into 3 sub sections, it's only the middle 8 to 10 places that are a proper gamble, which you'd take on if it proper stoooopid unbelievable odds.
Click to expand...

are you joking? West Ham will be in a relegation battle - their team is shite and they have a shite manager. he doesn't know what do with himself if he's anything higher than 16th
 


Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,667
West west west Sussex
willyfantastic said:
are you joking? West Ham will be in a relegation battle - their team is shite and they have a shite manager. he doesn't know what do with himself if he's anything higher than 16th
Click to expand...
Once you've taken the cream off the top of the division, you get into the shite pretty quickly.
 


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