Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

Ferrets tips : Leeds away



Eksman

Active member
Aug 9, 2012
1,880
On the toilet
So, I know I saw this a few times last season ( I think) how are his tips? Have you ever back them and won?

Here is what he has said on the official site

A new season provides fresh chances for a bankroll boost as I'll be looking to take my inside information on the Albion, and use it to make the bookmakers pay.
With the new season comes a new betting partner to the football league, Sky Bet being the latest to put their heads above the parapet as they also sponsor the Football League itself.

The online bookmaker lists Harry Redknapp’s Queens Park Rangers as their 6/1 favourites to win the division, but Albion's opening opponents Leeds United are likely to attract value punters with Sky Bet's offer of 22/1 for Brian McDermott’s men to win the Championship. Brighton get a 16/1 quote, while Leicester are probably the alternate value bet at 14/1.

If picking an outright winner is altogether too challenging in a league that could be distorted by parachute payments, then backing a team to finish in the top six is a viable option. A repetition for the Seagulls is a short looking 6/4 but as with the outright, again Leeds appear overpriced at 11/4. You would expect Reading (11/10) and Bolton (5/4) to gain a great deal of support from the heavy hitters.

On the flip side a tough relegation fight appear on the cards for Barnsley (5/2 to go down) while as a long shot Middlesbrough (10/1) could be this season's struggling giant.

Leonardo Ulloa is 14/1 to top the seasonal goalscorer lists (Jordan Rhodes is 7/1 favourite), while internal to the Albion, Craig Mackail-Smith is 3/1 to top the individual Brighton charts.

Turning to this Saturday's kick-off, Leeds are - not unexpectedly - installed as favourites, but their 6/4 quote suggests the bookies have some doubts. Albion are 15/8 and the Draw is 12/5 and both of these prices are 'about right'.

Better value is available in the half-time/full-time category, where the realistic possibility of Leeds/Draw or Brighton/Draw are both priced up at 16/1 and should be taken. For a correct score the best value is Leeds to win 2-1 at 9/1 closely followed by the same scoreline in favour of the Albion (10/1). Overall then I foresee a tight game that could ebb and flow between both sides.

For a first goalscorer, Brighton's value bet is Ulloa at 7/1, while for last goalscorer take a punt on David Lopez at 12/1.

A lot of potential wagers above. Happy punting and here's to a profitable season!
Read more at http://www.seagulls.co.uk/news/article/ferrets-tips-leeds-away-964693.aspx#qhIlg1vUupZPbSqF.99
 




Conkers

Well-known member
Jan 11, 2006
4,523
Haywards Heath
People laugh at his tips but they tend to come off more often than not.
 






Seagull27

Well-known member
Feb 7, 2011
3,309
Bristol
I think people forget/don't realise that he doesn't suggest bets that he thinks will come off, but those that seem good value for what they are.
 




mistahclarke

Well-known member
Jul 28, 2009
2,997
So, I know I saw this a few times last season ( I think) how are his tips? Have you ever back them and won?


For a first goalscorer, Brighton's value bet is Ulloa at 7/1, while for last goalscorer take a punt on David Lopez at 12/1.

nah, he's got no idea.
 


Ninja Elephant

Doctor Elephant
Feb 16, 2009
18,855
People laugh at his tips but they tend to come off more often than not.

No they don't. He backed us to beat Barnsley at home last August and nailed it to be fair... But he picks out value, not blatantly obvious and safe picks. He points out when something is over priced, in terms of probability of it happening. Like Dave a few times last season, being a double digit price to score first.
 






Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
No they don't. He backed us to beat Barnsley at home last August and nailed it to be fair... But he picks out value, not blatantly obvious and safe picks. He points out when something is over priced, in terms of probability of it happening. Like Dave a few times last season, being a double digit price to score first.

BHAFC ‏@OfficialBHAFC 12m
Also a great start to the season for Ferret, whose 7/1 tip for Ulloa to score first came in. Were you on it
 


Ninja Elephant

Doctor Elephant
Feb 16, 2009
18,855
BHAFC ‏@OfficialBHAFC 12m
Also a great start to the season for Ferret, whose 7/1 tip for Ulloa to score first came in. Were you on it

Ulloa? First goal? Blimey. Great shout.

But the price is my point, 7/1 is very generous. It should have been a bit shorter, so there is value there. Easy to say after the fact, but it's true. That is tipping.
 
















Mustela Furo

Advantage Player
Jul 7, 2003
1,481
People laugh at his tips but they tend to come off more often than not.

Who's laughing??? Grrrrr !!

I think he's usually ahead at the end of the season.

Always! - not a single losing season in 10 years (also applies to every "mini-season" in summer - World Cup and Euros)

I think people forget/don't realise that he doesn't suggest bets that he thinks will come off, but those that seem good value for what they are.
he picks out value, not blatantly obvious and safe picks. He points out when something is over priced, in terms of probability of it happening.

Spot on - if you consistently back at greater than the true odds then you *WILL* win money in the long run. Simples!

For a correct score the best value is Leeds to win 2-1 at 9/1

For a first goalscorer, Brighton's value bet is Ulloa at 7/1,


Bitter Sweet.

6 tips on the game ... (16/1; 16/1; 12/1; 10/1; 9/1; 7/1) the shortest two came up for a 12 point profit (£120 profit to £10 level stakes)
 
Last edited:


Albion and Premier League latest from Sky Sports


Top
Link Here