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[Albion] Albion - good VALUE bet



Simster

Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,166
Surrey
From another thread:
Stat Brother said:
16 & 18/1

Ulloa around 20's for top scorer.
Click to expand...

That seems remarkably good value.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

We are widely available at 9/2 or 5/1 for promotion which seems good value. I'm feeling more and more confident with every passing day. The only team I think will prove too good for us over the course of the season is Reading.

Any team with too many changes will take time to settle. So I think Wigan and Forest will be decent but playing catch up as I reckon they might start slowly. Reading too, but they will be too good for this to be a sufficient problem. QPR ought to challenge, but they won't because they are a mess - how many of their Carlos Kickaballs will even want to be at the club, never mind the fact that Redknapp is a crap manager whose luck has finally run out. Bolton ought to challenge too - they've got a settled side and were bang in form in 2013.

After that, I'm looking at the rest and thinking none of them are anywhere near better than us. I'm convinced 5/1 is cracking value for a promotion bet.
 




Triggaaar

Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,155
Goldstone
Simster said:
We are widely available at 9/2 or 5/1 for promotion which seems good value.
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We were 11/2 last before the start of last season, and had a manager that knew our team and the division. It's a big ask for a new manager.
 


Simster

Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,166
Surrey
Triggaaar said:
We were 11/2 last before the start of last season, and had a manager that knew our team and the division. It's a big ask for a new manager.
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Fine margins though Trig, we threw points away, we picked up Ulloa a couple of weeks too late, we threw points away, CMS got injured for a massive length of time, oh and we really did throw so many points away.

In all honesty, I think we are better placed than last season. Up front, we are a properly potent outfit right from the off.
 


Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
21,606
Brighton
Triggaaar said:
We were 11/2 last before the start of last season, and had a manager that knew our team and the division. It's a big ask for a new manager.
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It was a big ask for Oscar at his last club in his first season but he smashed it. Nathan knows the Championship so they'll be no surprises for our management team.
 


Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,646
West west west Sussex
Triggaaar said:
We were 11/2 last before the start of last season, and had a manager that knew our team and the division. It's a big ask for a new manager.
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Here we go again, I just don't understand this cliche.

Why shouldn't Oscar's abilities be better than The Championship?
Would Mourinho need a season to work out the Championship?

If Oscar's best is better than everybody else's, it doesn't matter what division his team is in.
Did he 'need a year' to get used to Israel?

Why should the second division in England be any different.

If anything it'll be easier, he has his loyal team, Nathan Jones, at least 4 comfortable Spaniards, and money to buy more.

Why does he need a season to forget all he knows and become a tractor driving gimp?
 






Dick Knights Mumm

Dick Knights Mumm

Take me Home Falmer Road
Jul 5, 2003
19,610
Hither and Thither
It is pre-season Sim. There will be a dozen clubs thinking the same, and some with better reason than us. If you are confident you may be better to keep your powder dry. If it takes time for the players to get used to Oscar's system (as in Tel Aviv) then there may be better odds a couple of months in.
 


Lethargic

Lethargic

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2006
3,463
Horsham
Stat Brother said:
Here we go again, I just don't understand this cliche.

Why shouldn't Oscar's abilities be better than The Championship?
Would Mourinho need a season to work out the Championship?

If Oscar's best is better than everybody else's, it doesn't matter what division his team is in.
Did he 'need a year' to get used to Israel?

Why should the second division in England be any different.

If anything it'll be easier, he has his loyal team, Nathan Jones, at least 4 comfortable Spaniards, and money to buy more.

Why does he need a season to forget all he knows and become a tractor driving gimp?
Click to expand...

I guess at this stage it comes down to whether you think Gus was the differentiator or not those that do think we will bomb this season and those that don't think we will push for promotion hence the diverse views. My view is those are good odds and worth taking I think 11th is the worst this team will achieve the players are good enough to achieve that even with me in charge.
 




Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,646
West west west Sussex
Lethargic said:
I guess at this stage it comes down to whether you think Gus was the differentiator or not those that do think we will bomb this season and those that don't think we will push for promotion hence the diverse views. My view is those are good odds and worth taking I think 11th is the worst this team will achieve the players are good enough to achieve that even with me in charge.
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Yeah.

It would be understandable if Gus flounced off taking half the squad with him.
Judging by the in's and out's across the division we're the only settled team, who have now bought in another young manager with better pedigree.

Every time I've asked these questions of a naysayer, to a man they've never answered.
 




B

bhawoddy

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2011
3,621
​
I wouldn't back us at 40/1. Not strong enough......

<<<<<<wants to have words shoved down throat at end of season.
 






Uncle Spielberg

Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 6, 2003
42,808
Lancing
50/1 is realistic odds and 12/1 for promotion for a middle table / lower mid table side which we will be.
 




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