Big season for Ashley Barnes

Brighton Breezy · Jul 10, 2013

Watching the cricket so decided to dig up some Albion stats at the same time. A request on Twitter asked for the Albion's record with and without Ashley Barnes.

Got me thinking, this will be a big season for Barnes without Poyet at the helm. Will Oscar be so keen on him? Will a change of approach mean less room for Barnes?

I want to see him do well, but could be the biggest loser from the Poyet saga as far as current players are concerned.

Stats for last season also show some interesting figures, including the fact that WITHOUT Barnes the Albion were unbeaten in 92% of games. With him that fell to 72%. That coincides with Upson's arrival and the subsequent improvement in defence but equally, and perhaps surprisingly to some on here, the Albion's win rate was higher with him in the team.

But, he also only clocked up four direct assists in the league - less than defensive players like Calderon, Bridcutt or Bruno. Eight goals in the league represents one every four games. Not too shabby for someone often moved around the pitch during matches.

Anyone interested, the blog is HERE (also doing similar pieces on Albion's record with and without Bridcutt, whether Poyet's substitutions DID change games and a couple of others requested on Twitter) but am really interested to know how other fans think he will do this season.

Will he feature as much under Garcia? It seems Garcia likes two defensive midfield players which would presumably free up the wide positions for more attack-minded players than Barnes.

- Please forgive me if any of the stats are slightly out. They shouldn't be - but got doing it with one eye on The Ashes.

Kumquat · Jul 10, 2013

I don't think you really can properly analyse Barnes's performance with and without last season precisely because when he wasn't there Upson was and the defence was much more consistent. The win rate with him probably says more. But I agree this could be an interesting season. Given his age and that he has answered most questions of him while being played out of position, I have a hunch he will be a very good player for us this year.

glasfryn · Jul 10, 2013

Got even the mention of Barnes will wake a lot of people up

look out here comes SOMERSET

Brighton Breezy · Jul 10, 2013

Kumquat said:
Given his age and that he has answered most questions of him while being played out of position, I have a hunch he will be a very good player for us this year.

I think his versatility should make him a decent/important squad player. I think the club under Poyet was perhaps guilty of spending too much wage budget on back-up players. Squad members like Barnes etc should be useful in filling in for a variety of positions for the odd run of games if needed.

narly101 · Jul 10, 2013

Average squad player at best. Wouldn't be said to see him left out of the squad to be honest

Mellotron · Jul 10, 2013

Walt Jabsco said:
surprisingly to some on here, the Albion's win rate was higher with him in the team.

I don't see why that should surprise anyone. Don't think I've ever seen an Albion player with a bigger will to win. He was EXACTLY what was needed in the playoff semi 2nd leg, along with probably Crofts.

Icy Gull · Jul 10, 2013

Walt Jabsco said:
Will he feature as much under Garcia? It seems Garcia likes two defensive midfield players which would presumably free up the wide positions for more attack-minded players than Barnes.
.

With any luck he will be played in his BEST position, which is as an out and out attacker. Imo he did a fine job last season as he was played out of position virtually all the time.

I'll stick my neck on the line here and suggest that Ashley will be a key FORWARD this season

Brighton Breezy · Jul 10, 2013

Mellotron said:
I don't see why that should surprise anyone. Don't think I've ever seen an Albion player with a bigger will to win. He was EXACTLY what was needed in the playoff semi 2nd leg, along with probably Crofts.

Some might counter that with the fact we could probably have done with him during the ten games just prior to that which he missed for kicking a ref...

Mellotron · Jul 10, 2013

Walt Jabsco said:
Some might counter that with the fact we could probably have done with him during the ten games just prior to that which he missed for kicking a ref...

I don't see how that's a counter at all, when the discussion point is "Does Ashley Barnes have a strong will to win?"

yxee · Jul 10, 2013

I genuinely believe he's the best poacher in the team. He's also pretty good as a defensive left-sided forward where he's played 99.9% of the time.

Brighton Breezy · Jul 10, 2013

Mellotron said:
I don't see how that's a counter at all, when the discussion point is "Does Ashley Barnes have a strong will to win?"

You said he was exactly the sort of player we needed in those key games. An alternative argument would be that perhaps we would not have needed him if Ulloa hadn't had to play almost every minute of a long run of games leading up to it. His will to win also seems to come coupled with a petulant streak which robbed him of 12 matches last season...

You could also probably make a strong argument that during the home Play Off match with Palace the game was crying out for two genuine pacey wide players. Lua Lua was probably more missed on the left hand slot that night.

That said, Barnes as a centre forward I have no problem with. He reacts well in the box and is certainly worth keeping around as a back-up striker (if Oscar only opts for one, it would surely be Ulloa) or to fill in elsewhere when needed.

Icy Gull · Jul 10, 2013

Walt Jabsco said:
Some might counter that with the fact we could probably have done with him during the ten games just prior to that which he missed for kicking a ref...

Maybe but he came back and looked total quality in those last few games. Some people just enjoy an excuse to crucify him and a not inconsiderable number thought he should be sacked on the spot. Wrong I know but I found his trying to trip the ref quite amusing and I believe from his demeanour on his return when he just got on with the game, may be a turning point in his career.

I know I have zilch chance of any agreement from the many Barnes haters though, hey ho.

Gilliver's Travels · Jul 10, 2013

Walt Jabsco said:
Some might counter that with the fact we could probably have done with him during the ten games just prior to that which he missed for kicking a ref...

It wasn't for kicking a ref – the charge was tripping, [allegedly]. I was there, and everyone missed the incident. Plenty of room for doubt there…
Come on Richie, don't allow any unprofessional bias to surface here…

Acker79 · Jul 10, 2013

Walt Jabsco said:
Watching the cricket so decided to dig up some Albion stats at the same time. A request on Twitter asked for the Albion's record with and without Ashley Barnes.

Got me thinking, this will be a big season for Barnes without Poyet at the helm. Will Oscar be so keen on him? Will a change of approach mean less room for Barnes?

I want to see him do well, but could be the biggest loser from the Poyet saga as far as current players are concerned.

Stats for last season also show some interesting figures, including the fact that WITHOUT Barnes the Albion were unbeaten in 92% of games. With him that fell to 72%. That coincides with Upson's arrival and the subsequent improvement in defence but equally, and perhaps surprisingly to some on here, the Albion's win rate was higher with him in the team.

But, he also only clocked up four direct assists in the league - less than defensive players like Calderon, Bridcutt or Bruno. Eight goals in the league represents one every four games. Not too shabby for someone often moved around the pitch during matches.

Anyone interested, the blog is HERE (also doing similar pieces on Albion's record with and without Bridcutt, whether Poyet's substitutions DID change games and a couple of others requested on Twitter) but am really interested to know how other fans think he will do this season.

Will he feature as much under Garcia? It seems Garcia likes two defensive midfield players which would presumably free up the wide positions for more attack-minded players than Barnes.

- Please forgive me if any of the stats are slightly out. They shouldn't be - but got doing it with one eye on The Ashes.

without kuszczak, generally considered our best keeper, we're undefeated, with a win rate of 66.7 percent, with him our win rate is only 37.8%, losing 22.2% of games.
without bridcutt, generally considered our best player, we're undefeated with a win rate of 80%, with him it is 34.9%, losing 23.2% of games

Does that mean their days are numbered, too?

Barnes featured in 56% of our league match time. Proportionally, he should be present for 56% goals scored, 56% of goals conceded. He was actually present for 67% of goals showing we scored more frequently with him on the pitch. (We also concede more frequently, but only slightly more, at 60% of goals conceded occurring with him on the pitch).

We didn't concede a single goal while Marcos Painter was on the pitch at all last season.

It's also misleading to limit it to direct assists. It ignores:

Sheff Wed Won the free-kick for Bridge's goal
Huddersfield Goal wrongly disallowed for offside
Bolton Carried the ball from deep in own half up field set CMS free in the build up to free kick goal
Charlton Won the free-kick for Lualua's goal
Derby County (Scored first goal,) recovered from ball trapped under his feet to feed Buckley (whose shot was saved, and orlandi poked the follow up at the keeper)
Huddersfield Fed CMS through to win the penalty
Blackpool (scored the 5th and 6th goals, set up the first), played a major part in the fourth
Leeds United Pressured the player to force the back pass error Buckley scored from

The big problem with that is football is a team game, and absences or inclusions don't necessarily directly affect win/loss records, that using stats that are the result of the actions and decisions of both teams, or stats that are restrictive in interpretation (i.e. assists being the last person to touch the ball before the goal scorer, eliminating hard work in build up or winning set pieces), to judge one individual player is very dangerous and misleading.

MattBackHome · Jul 10, 2013

Our very own Nate Silver :wink:

Simster · Jul 10, 2013

I can't see that there is much to debate that this is a big season for Ashley Barnes.

He's a decent squad player who is prone to indiscipline. But with CMS and Hoskins returning to fitness along with a fresh Ulloa, they are all going to need big seasons really. We really ought to be quite strong up front.

Mellotron · Jul 10, 2013

When Barnes plays in his proper position, he's a very good player at Championship level. Here's hoping he gets a fair few chances.

Brighton Breezy · Jul 10, 2013

Acker79 said:
It's also misleading to limit it to direct assists. It ignores:

Sheff Wed Won the free-kick for Bridge's goal
Huddersfield Goal wrongly disallowed for offside
Bolton Carried the ball from deep in own half up field set CMS free in the build up to free kick goal
Charlton Won the free-kick for Lualua's goal
Derby County (Scored first goal,) recovered from ball trapped under his feet to feed Buckley (whose shot was saved, and orlandi poked the follow up at the keeper)
Huddersfield Fed CMS through to win the penalty
Blackpool (scored the 5th and 6th goals, set up the first), played a major part in the fourth
Leeds United Pressured the player to force the back pass error Buckley scored from

True, but presumably you could unearth similar incidents for other players well.

I take your point though completely. The basis stats included were only really aimed at sparking some debate.

I think Barnes is fine as a striker. I also think he suffers from being played out of position and chopped and changed around to various roles during a match. Given a run in a more favoured position, perhaps as a foil for Ulloa, I could see him coming good.

Mellotron · Jul 10, 2013

Simster said:
I can't see that there is much to debate that this is a big season for Ashley Barnes.

He's a decent squad player who is prone to indiscipline. But with CMS and Hoskins returning to fitness along with a fresh Ulloa, they are all going to need big seasons really. We really ought to be quite strong up front.

I think "prone" is slightly strong for someone who has only had 2 justifiably disciplined incidents in what, nearly 4 years? As someone pointed out, he went something like 22 games without even a yellow last season, between the 2 incidents.

The sheff wed tackle and the ref trip, and even the ref trip is SLIGHTLY questionable. He is NOWHERE NEAR as hotheaded as some make out, just like El Abd is NOT going to give away a penalty ANY SECOND, because he doesn't.

MattBackHome · Jul 10, 2013

Acker79 said:
The big problem with that is football is a team game, and absences or inclusions don't necessarily directly affect win/loss records, that using stats that are the result of the actions and decisions of both teams, or stats that are restrictive in interpretation (i.e. assists being the last person to touch the ball before the goal scorer, eliminating hard work in build up or winning set pieces), to judge one individual player is very dangerous and misleading.

Agree with this in principle, though I do think that the fact that although 'individual' stats are limited in that don't necessarily correlate with the 'team' truth, they do go someway towards understanding and highlighting specific direct contributions. And a team is, after all, made up of individuals. Plus it's quite fun, and sometimes you see really weird outlying stats that give cause to think slightly differently about a player.

But more importantly for me at least it's an attempt to develop an understanding of the game based on what is actually happening, rather than hunches, prejudices and what someone has regurgitated out of The Currant Bun.

More stattage please.

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