Official 2013 Summer Weather Thread

May

Overall we are expecting May at this stage to finish slightly below average temperature wise, and around average in terms of Rainfall. Current estimations suggest that the first half of the month is likely to see more in the way of unsettled and wetter conditions, where as later in the month, we may see more in the way of settled conditions and some above average temperatures. Of course it should be noted that the values shown are anomalies from the average. The average May temperature for the UK stretches from around 10-12c in the North, to around 15-17c further South.

June

June could once again prove a month of two halves, with the first half likely to continue on from the end of May rather settled with temperatures perhaps just above average as a ridge of high pressure moves in from the South. As the month progresses, however, a return to more unsettled conditions with cooler temperatures is expected, though rainfall overall through June may end up slightly below average.

July

July overall is expected to be cooler than average, with rather unsettled conditions expected to dominate at this stage. The slight wildcard is the suggestion of high pressure just to the West of the UK, and this may just keep far Western regions a little drier than the average overall.

August

Much the same picture as July expected, with temperatures likely to be below average, and Rainfall amounts around average.

The strongest signal through the summer period is for low pressure to stubbornly dominate just to the East of the UK, and this is why the signal for below average temperatures exists, with a notable higher than average rainfall anomaly persisting throughout across Mainland Europe. This may prove the trickiest element of the forecast, with our early research suggesting that the UK is likely to straddle the boundary between low pressure to the East, and higher pressure just to the South-West of the UK. The main concern at present would be for a slight shift Westwards in the pattern, which may leave the UK open to another very wet summer as the rainfall anomaly across Europe ends up a little closer to the UK.

Summary

So for now overall a better summer than 2012 is expected, with less rainfall overall, though temperatures overall looking rather disappointing. Of course at this still early stage there is still a lot left open to uncertainty, and when we come to release our full summer forecast in May, we will have had more time to crunch data and to see how the major global circulatory patterns are shaping up relative to our projections.

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May

After a pleasant and warm bank holiday (for many) at the start of May, the weather has steadily changed back to cooler and wetter conditions since, and the indications are that the general theme will continue during the remainder of the month - this doesn't rule out some warmer, drier periods though with temperatures overall close to average.

June

Into Summer, and the rainfall pattern is currently expected to be close to normal, but with some local variations meaning some parts could see a wetter than average month. Temperatures are forecast to be close to or above average, with the northern half of the UK perhaps seeing the largest departure from average levels.

July

Confidence is low at this stage, but indications are that July could be a wetter month with many regions forecast to be wetter, or even much wetter than average albeit with some significant local variation again likely. Temperatures are generally close to or above average.

Next Update - Late May - Full Summer Forecast

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Brixtaan said:

The Gulf stream is broken and i'm starting to believe the scientists who say shit summers for ever more.

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e77 said:

Any chance of much play in Derby today?

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Wilko said:

Thank **** I am moving to Kenya in August.

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dig54 said:

This is going to be a long long long summer!

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Billy the Fish said:

Is the Jet stream going to f**k off over Iceland and do it's job like it's supposed to?

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Papa Lazarou said:

Little sign of it happening in the next 2 weeks, at least according to the mornings model output.

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Cheeky Monkey said:

Nairobbery?

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dig54 said:

This is going to be a long long long summer!

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