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This does not look good
- Thread starter Steve.S
- Start date
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,091
Lie, damn lies and statistics.
Tiny sample size for fairly random data.
Tiny sample size for fairly random data.
D Block blue
Active member
Is that a new pie from Piglets Pantry?
- Thread starter
- #6
Of course they mean something, its probability. We have words like that because they mean something. Of course that does not mean 4th can not win. Stats change all the time.
hybrid_x
Banned
- Jun 28, 2011
- 2,225
sorry mate, i dont agree.......one cannot say 4th has not won the play offs too much in the past so it hinders the current BHA team of human beings and how the play football (pass the ball, tackle, shoot).
so a player like ulloa who knew nothing of the playoff system in england till a few months ago is hindered by this "stat" you have? explain how?
Ultimately sport cannot deliver "true" probability (unlike your roulette wheel analogy) as there are too many external factors.
But in a pure statistical sense 4 numbers have an equal chance of winning and as 4th has not won the probability that it will win soon is higher than the other 3. However as you say this is not a clean experiment and with humans involved anything can happen so who knows, but I do have a good feeling its our year (based on nothing more than a hunch).
- Thread starter
- #11
Nobody is asking you to agree, stats are there for a reason. Nobody has said that Brighton can not win, or that anyone is hindered. If Brighton win then the stat will change, if they do not then it will be 13 years. Stats are used to predict the the likely outcome, not make it
But the 4 numbers don't have an equal chance of winning. So it's a nonsense stat, it means nothing.
Stumpy Tim
Well-known member
Third will win most times as they're the best team over the season. You would expect that. My suggestion would be that the teams in 4th, 5th and 6th win when they've made a late charge and are on form heading into the play-offs.
Truth is, it's basically a lottery. Over a season, refereeing decisions even themselves out. In a two-legged semi or a final at Wembley, they don't. Luck is going to play a huge part in this. Having said that, I think we'll make the final... but I'm not predicting anything beyond that*
(*Brighton to beat Bolton in the final)
Truth is, it's basically a lottery. Over a season, refereeing decisions even themselves out. In a two-legged semi or a final at Wembley, they don't. Luck is going to play a huge part in this. Having said that, I think we'll make the final... but I'm not predicting anything beyond that*
(*Brighton to beat Bolton in the final)
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
We were 4th in 2004. Just saying.
chrissyboy01
New member
- Sep 24, 2011
- 471
Can you convert this into a bar chart please.........or maybe a line graph?
On the flip side, and no I haven't and no I wont, but whose to say with more research 4th hadn't got promoted 1992-2000?
Helen Chamberlains Quim
Member
Nearly ten years since we beat Blackpool in the league at home.
Twenty two years since we beat Middlesborough in the league.
Twenty eight years since we beat Middlesborough away in the league.
Twenty four years since we beat Palarse at home in the league.
The only other team to beat Cardiff at theirs this season, the other was Peterborough!
So I would suggest that we have been pretty good at bucking the trend this season!
Twenty two years since we beat Middlesborough in the league.
Twenty eight years since we beat Middlesborough away in the league.
Twenty four years since we beat Palarse at home in the league.
The only other team to beat Cardiff at theirs this season, the other was Peterborough!
So I would suggest that we have been pretty good at bucking the trend this season!
Chris_Highwind
New member
It kind of makes sense.... 3rd are more likely to win as they are the third best team in the league over the season. The other type of team that wins the playoffs are the ones that made a late surge, these teams are more likely to have sneaked in at 5th or 6th at the last minute... leaving 4th as usually not quite as good as 3rd, and not having the form of 5th/6th. The difference this season is we're the 4th best team, we have been on top of the table since January form wise and 3rd place really haven't got form(assuming it's going to be Hull). BRING ON THE PREMIER LEAGUE
