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Probabilities of play-off opponents



Pintos

Well-known member
Jul 28, 2005
560
Oxted
Using Betfair mid-market quotes and a bit of guesswork around margins of victory, approximate odds of Brighton's play-off opponents are:

Palace 77.9%
Bolton 19.5%
Forest 3.7%

Just thought I would share.
 

S'hampton Seagull

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2003
6,796
Southampton
Using Betfair mid-market quotes and a bit of guesswork around margins of victory, approximate odds of Brighton's play-off opponents are:

Palace 77.9%
Bolton 19.5%
Forest 3.7%

Just thought I would share.

Interesting, thanks for posting.
 

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,822
Worthing
And what are the equivalent percentages of the current play-off contenders getting promoted?
 

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,493
Gods country fortnightly
And what are the equivalent percentages of the current play-off contenders getting promoted?

Suprising, is the chance of Palace getting a draw on Sat and Bolton winning really that low? The best outcome would be all of them draw with average performances and we get Palace.
 

Pintos

Well-known member
Jul 28, 2005
560
Oxted
And what are the equivalent percentages of the current play-off contenders getting promoted?

There's a separate market for that

Hull 67%
Watford 54%
Brighton 27%
Palace 20%
Bolton 19%
Forest 9%
Leicester 4%

Brighton are the only team guaranteed to be in the playoffs, will be more interesting once all the contenders are finalised.
 


Pintos

Well-known member
Jul 28, 2005
560
Oxted
Suprising, is the chance of Palace getting a draw on Sat and Bolton winning really that low? The best outcome would be all of them draw with average performances and we get Palace.

If Palace draw then Bolton need to win by margin of 3 (plus some other messy goal difference scenarios if they win by 2).

I just realised my typo at the top - should be 76.9% for Palace (added up to around 101%...oops).
 

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