We're 98% certain to reach the play-offs

Gwylan said:

There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100.

Obviously, that assumes that there's an equal chance of all results happening and that Albion going to Leeds with nothing to play for is as easy (or as difficult) as Forest going to Millwall who are fighting for every point. I've also assumed that Forest or Bolton couldn't overtake on goal difference.

Looks like we can rest easy ... and no, I haven't got a life

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Gwylan said:

One note of caution: the chances of us not reaching the play-offs are 50-1. To indicate how unlikely that is, those are the same odds, in August, that FFS Murray would be the top scorer in the division.

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Rugrat said:

Can you do combinations of play off contenders and what are the chances of it being Us, Hull, Palarse and Forest. I reckon it's 0% but assume it's marginally better?

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Gwylan said:

There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100.

Obviously, that assumes that there's an equal chance of all results happening and that Albion going to Leeds with nothing to play for is as easy (or as difficult) as Forest going to Millwall who are fighting for every point. I've also assumed that Forest or Bolton couldn't overtake on goal difference.

Looks like we can rest easy ... and no, I haven't got a life

Click to expand...

Gwylan said:

One note of caution: the chances of us not reaching the play-offs are 50-1. To indicate how unlikely that is, those are the same odds, in August, that FFS Murray would be the top scorer in the division.

Click to expand...

Vegas Seagull said:

Er, it's 1,944 combinations....

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Gwylan said:

So it is. I thought Palace had four games to play not three - that will teach me to do mental arithmetic at 1.30 in the morning. Think the 51 combinations is still right though and the odds are still about 97%

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Gwylan said:

There are 2,592 combinations of possible results in the remaining Albion, Palace, Bolton and Forest games, only 51 of them would produce a situation where we would not be in the top four - approx 2 out of a 100.

Obviously, that assumes that there's an equal chance of all results happening and that Albion going to Leeds with nothing to play for is as easy (or as difficult) as Forest going to Millwall who are fighting for every point. I've also assumed that Forest or Bolton couldn't overtake on goal difference.

Looks like we can rest easy ... and no, I haven't got a life

Click to expand...

Tony Towner's Fridge said:

Brilliant Max, we can now all rest easy in a mathematically probable near certain type of existence.

Forest will draw at Millwar and we will be OK.

TNBA

TTF

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D Block blue said:

you could of

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Gwylan said:

So it is. I thought Palace had four games to play not three - that will teach me to do mental arithmetic at 1.30 in the morning. Think the 51 combinations is still right though and the odds are still about 97%

Click to expand...