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How crucial do you think playing the second leg at home is?

How crucial do you think playing the second leg at home

  • Very important it's the edge we need

    Votes: 74 59.7%
  • Not important home field advantage doesn't count for much in the play-offs.

    Votes: 21 16.9%
  • Does it really matter, we'll win/lose whatever

    Votes: 29 23.4%

  • Total voters
    124


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
73,371
West west west Sussex
IF, and that's a massive if (for those up the road), we limp over the line and into the play offs how important do you think the home/away leg is, to us.

I don't know what the breakdown of past results is, I sure WikiAcker will know, but I've convinced myself it's really important to us being home for the second leg.

I'd comfortably back us to get a 0-0 away and score at home, which I know is the whole point.
But it seems all the more pressing for us, this season, with our form/pitch/stadium.
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,575
Back in Sussex
I'm not convinced either way.

If a team arrives with a one goal lead, we know we can struggle to break a team down that has little interest in attacking play themselves.
 


shaolinpunk

[Insert witty title here]
Nov 28, 2005
7,187
Brighton
I'm not convinced either way.

If a team arrives with a one goal lead, we know we can struggle to break a team down that has little interest in attacking play themselves.

Well we'll just have to go away from home, pick up a 1-0 win, then when they have to chase an equaliser at the Amex we'll pick them off
 






mejonaNO12 aka riskit

Well-known member
Dec 4, 2003
21,481
England
Personally this is a BIG deal to me. I am desperate to have the home leg second. To have the deciding 90 mins + any potential extra time and pens at yours is huge.

For example, last night. Its probably a freak occassion but even with Bayern 4 up I was still thinking "I wouldn't write off Barca at the CAMP just yet". Again, not comparing us to BARCA. Just saying it's massive psychologically to come out of the first leg knowing you now have the comfort of home to complete the tie.

Don't get me wrong. I don't think we NEED the home advantage, just its a big advantage.
 








Muzzy

Well-known member
Jan 25, 2011
4,786
Lewes
I would be happy to travel to any of the other challengers already 2 or 3 goals to the good. If we have to overturn a similar deficit I'm not convinced that we a good enough to claw a way back.
 


Jim D

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2003
5,249
Worthing
It's important in a tight tie that might go to extra time and possibly pens. Would we have got the last minute equaliser (on aggregate) if we'd been playing the second leg at Swindon?
 


strings

Moving further North...
Feb 19, 2006
9,965
Barnsley
Out of curiosity, I thought I would look at the league position of the winners from the last 10 years:

[teams in bold played the semi-final second leg at home]

2003 - Wolverhampton Wanderers (5th in league)
2004 - Chrystal Palace (6th)
2005 - West Ham United (6th)
2006 - Watford (3rd)
2007 - Derby County (3rd)
2008 - Hull City (3rd)

2009 - Burnley (5th)
2010 - Blackpool (6th)
2011 - Swansea City (3rd)
2012 - West Ham United (3rd)


What the above tells us is that a team playing at home in the semi-final second leg, has won exactly half of the last 10 play off finals - therefore there is statistically no advantage in playing at home for the second leg (if you only look at the play off winners, and ignore the losing finalists).

The last team finishing 4th in the league to win the play-offs was Charlton Athletic, in 1998.
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,575
Back in Sussex
Out of curiosity, I thought I would look at the league position of the winners from the last 10 years:

[teams in bold played the semi-final second leg at home]

2003 - Wolverhampton Wanderers (5th in league)
2004 - Chrystal Palace (6th)
2005 - West Ham United (6th)
2006 - Watford (3rd)
2007 - Derby County (3rd)
2008 - Hull City (3rd)

2009 - Burnley (5th)
2010 - Blackpool (6th)
2011 - Swansea City (3rd)
2012 - West Ham United (3rd)


What the above tells us is that a team playing at home in the semi-final second leg, has won exactly half of the last 10 play off finals - therefore there is statistically no advantage in playing at home for the second leg (if you only look at the play off winners, and ignore the losing finalists).

The last team finishing 4th in the league to win the play-offs was Charlton Athletic, in 1998.

Wouldn't it be more telling to look who made it through to the final based on home/away rather than who eventually won?
 


hans kraay fan club

The voice of reason.
Helpful Moderator
Mar 16, 2005
61,094
Chandlers Ford
I'm not convinced either way.

If a team arrives with a one goal lead, we know we can struggle to break a team down that has little interest in attacking play themselves.

This is a very good point. Remember the stats folks - we've not once lost after scoring first, but not won once after conceding first. Can the semi-final tie overall, be treated as one long 'match' in that context? If it can, then we would logically want to play at home first, and secure a lead to protect.
 


cheshunt seagull

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
2,486
It would be great to have the deciding game at home but I'm not sure it makes that much difference. You can think of all sorts of scenarios in which the level of advantage given varies. One of my least favoured scenarios is a narrow defeat in an away leg followed by our opponents successfully parking the bus at the Amex. Also a win away in the first leg can cause some uncertainty as to how to play the home leg.
 




strings

Moving further North...
Feb 19, 2006
9,965
Barnsley
Wouldn't it be more telling to look who made it through to the final based on home/away rather than who eventually won?

Yes, yes it would. I just couldn't be bothered to do the job properly.
 


hybrid_x

Banned
Jun 28, 2011
2,225
i think our style will suit AWAY in the 2nd leg......

the home team will attack us - and that is when we will pick them off.........unless we lose the home leg which i cant see as the team will park the bus.
 


El Presidente

The ONLY Gay in Brighton
Helpful Moderator
Jul 5, 2003
39,689
Pattknull med Haksprut
I would prefer us to be at home in the second leg, simply because if we do get to Wembley, it would be great to see the team do it at the Amex in front of 28,500 fans (and celebrating at the end of the match with a lap of honour in front of 13,000)
 


MattBackHome

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
11,689
Winner PosRunner UpPos
2003

Wolves5Sheffield United3
2004Crystal Palace6West Ham United4
2005West Ham United6Preston North End5
2006Watford3Leeds United5
2007Derby County3West Bromwich Albion4
2008Hull City3Bristol City4
2009Burnley5Sheffield United3
2010Blackpool6Cardiff City4
2011Swansea City3Reading5
2012West Ham United3Blackpool 5

So the 5/6th placed teams have comprised 9 of the last 20 finalists? Though once they reach the final they have a better record, having won on 5 of those 9 appearances.
 




strings

Moving further North...
Feb 19, 2006
9,965
Barnsley
As requested above; losing play off finalists (those in bold played the semi second leg at home):

2003 - Sheffield United (3rd)
2004 - West Ham United (4th)

2005 - Preston North End (5th)
2006 - Leeds United (5th)
2007 - West Bromwich Albion (4th)
2008 - Bristol City (4th)
2009 - Sheffield United (3rd)
2010 - Cardiff (4th)

2011 - Reading (5th)
2012 - Blackpool (5th)

EDIT - Beaten to it!
 


dadams2k11

ID10T Error
Jun 24, 2011
4,943
Brighton
I always thought it was an advantage to play at home first so you can play the away game with hopefully a few goals ahead and then try and nick a goal in the 2nd leg. Playing at home in the 2nd leg can put all sorts of pressure on the team if they are behind.
 



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