What are the official odds on CHARLTON making it?

Simster · Apr 23, 2013

You'd expect them to be very long, yet analysing the scenario in detail makes me wonder whether there might actually be some value in that bet.

Charlton are five points behind sixth with an inferior goal difference, so this is what they need:

Beat Middlesbrough away
Beat Bristol City at home

Then they need Bolton to lose both games. Bolton are away to Cardiff and then home to Blackpool. And Forest to lose or draw at Millwall, Leicester to lose at home to Watford, then the two teams to draw on the last day.

I think Bolton are clearly the least likely to uphold their side of the bargain, I don't really fancy Charlton to beat Boro anyway and the chance of all results coming together must be highly unlikely, so I am not suggesting it will happen, but if the odds are 66/1 or better, then funnier things have happened...

Simster · Apr 23, 2013

Palace losing all three games while Charlton win theirs would also potentially let them in. (7 goal swing required over those five matches)

beardy gull · Apr 23, 2013

Simster said:
You'd expect them to be very long, yet analysing the scenario in detail makes me wonder whether there might actually be some value in that bet.

Charlton are five points behind sixth with an inferior goal difference, so this is what they need:

Beat Middlesbrough away
Beat Bristol City at home

Then they need Bolton to lose both games. Bolton are away to Cardiff and then home to Blackpool. And Forest to lose or draw at Millwall, Leicester to lose at home to Watford, then the two teams to draw on the last day.

I think Bolton are clearly the least likely to uphold their side of the bargain, I don't really fancy Charlton to beat Boro anyway and the chance of all results coming together must be highly unlikely, so I am not suggesting it will happen, but if the odds are 66/1 or better, then funnier things have happened...

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

100/1 with skybet and and coral. 513/10 and 704/19 on "the exchanges" (he says pretending he knows what "exchanges" are)
Go for it man!
Edit: Those prices are for promotion of course, not to make the play-offs.

Hove Seagull · Apr 23, 2013

Simster said:
Palace losing all three games while Charlton win theirs would also potentially let them in. (7 goal swing required over those five matches)

That would be so funny

Seasidesage · Apr 23, 2013

Simster said:
Palace losing all three games while Charlton win theirs would also potentially let them in. (7 goal swing required over those five matches)

That would be SO funny...

Betfair Bozo · Apr 23, 2013

43/1 for beans on Betfair. Bet365 will quote you a price I am sure. Try Steve Freeth on Twitter.

hans kraay fan club · Apr 23, 2013

Simster said:
You'd expect them to be very long, yet analysing the scenario in detail makes me wonder whether there might actually be some value in that bet.

Charlton are five points behind sixth with an inferior goal difference, so this is what they need:

Beat Middlesbrough away 2/1
Beat Bristol City at home EVS
Then they need Bolton to lose both games. Bolton are away to Cardiff EVS and then home to Blackpool 3/1. And Forest to lose or draw at Millwall EVS, Leicester to lose at home to Watford 2/1, then the two teams to draw on the last day 2/1.

I think Bolton are clearly the least likely to uphold their side of the bargain, I don't really fancy Charlton to beat Boro anyway and the chance of all results coming together must be highly unlikely, so I am not suggesting it will happen, but if the odds are 66/1 or better, then funnier things have happened...

I haven't done the sums, but if them making it, does indeed need all the scenarios you've listed, I'd want 200/1

Betfair Bozo · Apr 23, 2013

My price is a top 6 finish btw. I thought that's what you were after.

carlzeiss · Apr 23, 2013

Only 25-1 for a top six finish on Sporting Life . Somebody is having a laugh .

Simster · Apr 23, 2013

hans kraay fan club said:
I haven't done the sums, but if them making it, does indeed need all the scenarios you've listed, I'd want 200/1

Bolton won't lose at home to Blackpool even though there is no love lost there and Blackpool might yet need something. However, that might not matter if Forest and Leicester did their bit and Palace lost their three very loseable games at Blackburn, Millwall and home to Peterborough. In fact, that would be splendid.

Tricky Dicky · Apr 23, 2013

Simster said:
You'd expect them to be very long, yet analysing the scenario in detail makes me wonder whether there might actually be some value in that bet.

Charlton are five points behind sixth with an inferior goal difference, so this is what they need:

Beat Middlesbrough away
Beat Bristol City at home

Then they need Bolton to lose both games. Bolton are away to Cardiff and then home to Blackpool. And Forest to lose or draw at Millwall, Leicester to lose at home to Watford, then the two teams to draw on the last day.

I think Bolton are clearly the least likely to uphold their side of the bargain, I don't really fancy Charlton to beat Boro anyway and the chance of all results coming together must be highly unlikely, so I am not suggesting it will happen, but if the odds are 66/1 or better, then funnier things have happened...

Big Charlton fan here in the office, he doesn't think they'll get a p/o place and he doesn't want them to get one apparently.

hans kraay fan club · Apr 23, 2013

Tricky Dicky said:
Big Charlton fan here in the office, he doesn't think they'll get a p/o place and he doesn't want them to get one apparently.

'course he doesn't.

Triggaaar · Apr 23, 2013

Simster said:
You'd expect them to be very long, yet analysing the scenario in detail makes me wonder whether there might actually be some value in that bet.

I was thinking the exact opposite earlier.

so this is what they need:

Beat Middlesbrough away
Beat Bristol City at home

1 in 3, and 1 in 2 - so 1 in 6 of that happening.

Then they need Bolton to lose both games. Bolton are away to Cardiff and then home to Blackpool.

1 in 2 and 1 in 3 (at worst) so another 1 in 6 - combined 1 in 36 so far.

And Forest to lose or draw at Millwall, Leicester to lose at home to Watford

2 in 3, and 1 in 4 - so another 1 in 6 - combined 1 in 216

then the two teams to draw on the last day.

Jesus - so two teams playing all out for the win - draw isn't too likely. Overall, 1 in 600 perhaps.

Muzzy · Apr 23, 2013

I recall the Charlton fan here pre season telling us that they were dead Certs for relegation and to put our houses on it! What sort of a tipster was he?

Btw I'd want 500/1 on them making play offs as things stand.

Simster · Apr 23, 2013

Triggaaar said:
I was thinking the exact opposite earlier.

1 in 3, and 1 in 2 - so 1 in 6 of that happening.
1 in 2 and 1 in 3 (at worst) so another 1 in 6 - combined 1 in 36 so far.

2 in 3, and 1 in 4 - so another 1 in 6 - combined 1 in 216
Jesus - so two teams playing all out for the win - draw isn't too likely. Overall, 1 in 600 perhaps.

I knew you'd be along with your six million quotes, and glib, pointlessly contrary load of bollocks. I don't think it will happen either but I stopped reading on your first post. I bet you any money that you will not find a Charlton win at Middlesbrough quoted at 2/1 or better and you DEFINITELY won't find a Charlton home win against Bristol City at evens.

"Jesus", go and check your maths.

Tinpot Man. · Apr 23, 2013

Its something that could happen.. Wouldnt rule it out at all. worth a quid of mine.

Jim D · Apr 23, 2013

Bolton can do what they like. All you need is Palace to lose their 3 remaining games (giving a minimum of -3 goal difference), Leicester lose to Watford and draw with Forest and Forest don't beat Millwall. then Charlton need to win their two games with a goal difference that gives an 8 goal swing between them and Palace (ie if Palace gd is -3 then Charlton need +5).

fataddick · Apr 23, 2013

Muzzy said:
I recall the Charlton fan here pre season telling us that they were dead Certs for relegation and to put our houses on it! What sort of a tipster was he?

Btw I'd want 500/1 on them making play offs as things stand.

That was me and I still maintain the money I have on us being relegated is more likely to pay out then a bet on us making the playoffs.

El Turi · Apr 23, 2013

fataddick said:
That was me and I still maintain the money I have on us being relegated is more likely to pay out then a bet on us making the playoffs.

I take it that you must be pleased with the great job Powell is doing then?

Leighgull · Apr 23, 2013

Simster said:
You'd expect them to be very long, yet analysing the scenario in detail makes me wonder whether there might actually be some value in that bet.

Charlton are five points behind sixth with an inferior goal difference, so this is what they need:

Beat Middlesbrough away
Beat Bristol City at home

Then they need Bolton to lose both games. Bolton are away to Cardiff and then home to Blackpool. And Forest to lose or draw at Millwall, Leicester to lose at home to Watford, then the two teams to draw on the last day.

I think Bolton are clearly the least likely to uphold their side of the bargain, I don't really fancy Charlton to beat Boro anyway and the chance of all results coming together must be highly unlikely, so I am not suggesting it will happen, but if the odds are 66/1 or better, then funnier things have happened...

Bloody hell mate, I'd go for a walk if I were you.

Not a chance in hell of those scenarios panning out.

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What are the official odds on CHARLTON making it?

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