Simple maths - What it means if we beat Blackpool on Saturday...

Pavilionaire · Apr 16, 2013

We'll be on 69 points and have a goal difference of at least +19.

In that scenario to NOT make the play-offs the either Bolton or Forest would almost certainly have to get 7 points from their last 3 matches.

Bolton - M'boro (H) Cardiff (A) Blackpool (H). I'm seeing 6 points there, tops.

Forest - Barnsley (H) Millwall (A) Leicester (H). I'm seeing 7 points there, tops.

But, if Forest do beat Leicester (now on 64 points) then for us to miss out Leicester would have to beat both Palace (A) and Watford (H).

And even if Leicester win both those matches then for us to miss out Palace will need at least 4 points from Blackburn (A), Millwall (A) and Peterborough (H).

These are the odds on us making the play-offs after tonight's matches: BetVictor 1/6, Stan James 2/7, BetFair 3/14.

TSB · Apr 16, 2013

Top maths.

Edited due to stupidity.

Napper · Apr 16, 2013

If we didnt make it from here then it would be a big surprise to me.

4 pts should do it

Blackpool home is massive. No gimmes in this division but get 3 points then virtually there.

Then the fun begins

darters74 · Apr 16, 2013

Gonna be a long week!

chucky1973 · Apr 16, 2013

We can't win at home though!

We will probably get 3 draws and still make it

The Camel · Apr 16, 2013

Pavilionaire said:
We'll be on 69 points and have a goal difference of at least +19.

In that scenario to NOT make the play-offs the either Bolton or Forest would almost certainly have to get 7 points from their last 3 matches.

Bolton - M'boro (H) Cardiff (A) Blackpool (H). I'm seeing 6 points there, tops.

Forest - Barnsley (H) Millwall (A) Leicester (H). I'm seeing 7 points there, tops.

But, if Forest do beat Leicester (now on 64 points) then for us to miss out Leicester would have to beat both Palace (A) and Watford (H).

And even if Leicester win both those matches then for us to miss out Palace will need at least 4 points from Blackburn (A), Millwall (A) and Peterborough (H).

These are the odds on us making the play-offs after tonight's matches: BetVictor 1/6, Stan James 2/7, BetFair 3/14.

That Stan James price is out of date, it's the price available before tonight's games.

1/6 is about right.

86%!

Pavilionaire · Apr 16, 2013

I also think that you really don't want to be finishing 6th. If Watford beat Blackburn at home on Saturday then Gianfranco Zola can rest his key players safe in the knowledge they're 3rd. He won't need to risk anyone carrying a knock or looking jaded, so some players could get a 19 day break. For the 6th placed club there's no such luxury.

The stats on which team eventually gets promoted are as follows:

3rd (9 times), 4th (4), 5th (6) and 6th (5).

bomber130 · Apr 16, 2013

Pavilionaire said:
We'll be on 69 points and have a goal difference of at least +19.

In that scenario to NOT make the play-offs the either Bolton or Forest would almost certainly have to get 7 points from their last 3 matches.

Bolton - M'boro (H) Cardiff (A) Blackpool (H). I'm seeing 6 points there, tops.

Forest - Barnsley (H) Millwall (A) Leicester (H). I'm seeing 7 points there, tops.

But, if Forest do beat Leicester (now on 64 points) then for us to miss out Leicester would have to beat both Palace (A) and Watford (H).

And even if Leicester win both those matches then for us to miss out Palace will need at least 4 points from Blackburn (A), Millwall (A) and Peterborough (H).

These are the odds on us making the play-offs after tonight's matches: BetVictor 1/6, Stan James 2/7, BetFair 3/14.

How about looking at it this way we keep winning we stay in the playoffs not really worried about the rest because I seriously believe we will be the hardest team to beat over 2 legs and well, the playoff final is anyones to be honest.

TSB · Apr 16, 2013

Pavilionaire said:
I also think that you really don't want to be finishing 6th. If Watford beat Blackburn at home on Saturday then Malky Mackay can rest his key players safe in the knowledge they're 3rd. He won't need to risk anyone carrying a knock or looking jaded, so some players could get a 19 day break. For the 6th placed club there's no such luxury.

The stats on which team eventually gets promoted are as follows:

3rd (9 times), 4th (4), 5th (6) and 6th (5).

Err Malky Mackay

JOLovegrove · Apr 16, 2013

bomber130 said:
How about looking at it this way we keep winning we stay in the playoffs not really worried about the rest because I seriously believe we will be the hardest team to beat over 2 legs and well, the playoff final is anyones to be honest.

When you say 'keep winning' would mean we are winning for fun at the moment and we are doing far from that at the moment. I think 4 points out of the 9 will put us on 70, and think that would be enough to get in, as long points are dropped else where, which is bound to happen.

Pavilionaire · Apr 16, 2013

TSB said:
Err Malky Mackay

Fair point. He's still holding the aces.

TSB · Apr 16, 2013

Pavilionaire said:
Fair point. He's still holding the aces.

Eh? Do you mean Zola?
Ahh I see you have edited. Watford are on a terrible run of form. I wouldn't mind drawing them in the play-offs.

Goring-by-Seagull · Apr 16, 2013

JOLovegrove said:
When you say 'keep winning' would mean we are winning for fun at the moment and we are doing far from that at the moment. I think 4 points out of the 9 will put us on 70, and think that would be enough to get in, as long points are dropped else where, which is bound to happen.

This for me. Far from "winning for fun", if we beat Blackpool Saturday and one of the teams directly below us fail to win, we should be pretty safe. Can't believe everyone wants to help us out so much!

Pavilionaire · Apr 16, 2013

bomber130 said:
How about looking at it this way we keep winning we stay in the playoffs not really worried about the rest because I seriously believe we will be the hardest team to beat over 2 legs and well, the playoff final is anyones to be honest.

But we don't keep winning. What we do do is keep drawing.

Ernest · Apr 16, 2013

Need to go all out to finish 4th then play at home second match, massive advantage then

Pavilionaire · Apr 16, 2013

I'm with you on that Ernest. And the only way to do that is beat Blackpool on Saturday and get the points on the board. Palace will do well to match that result by beating Leicester.

bomber130 · Apr 17, 2013

JOLovegrove said:
When you say 'keep winning' would mean we are winning for fun at the moment and we are doing far from that at the moment. I think 4 points out of the 9 will put us on 70, and think that would be enough to get in, as long points are dropped else where, which is bound to happen.

To be honest in this league keep winning on most occasions means not losing we have moved up the table with draws and are so hard to beat.

bomber130 · Apr 17, 2013

Pavilionaire said:
But we don't keep winning. What we do do is keep drawing.

As quoted at my post of 0014hrs with this league winning on occasions has been taking a point from teams while others around us keep losing. only Cardiff have lost less than us this season, I think.

Mental Lental · Apr 17, 2013

Ernest said:
Need to go all out to finish 4th then play at home second match, massive advantage then

I don't subscribe to this theory. I think there's more chance of getting the all important away goals if you play the away game second, knowing exactly what is required of you.

Jim D · Apr 17, 2013

Mental Lental said:
I don't subscribe to this theory. I think there's more chance of getting the all important away goals if you play the away game second, knowing exactly what is required of you.

there's no 'away goals count double' rule in the playoffs - if there was Swindon would have beaten us a few years back. The advantage of the home leg second is that extra time is played at your place if it's level after 180 mins.

Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

Simple maths - What it means if we beat Blackpool on Saturday...

Well-known member

Captain Hindsight

Well-known member

New member

New member

Well-known member

Well-known member

bomber130

Captain Hindsight

Well-known member

Well-known member

Captain Hindsight

Well-known member

Well-known member

Stupid IDIOT

Well-known member

bomber130

bomber130

Well-known member

Well-known member

Share this page