Will we win a match from being in a losing position this season?

Jimmy Grimble · Feb 11, 2013

If yes, which game do you think it will be? You'd expect us to go behind in at least a few of the games before the season end, and if we're gonna make the play-offs you might think we need to win at least one of those games. So do you reckon it'll happen? I've got a FEELING it could happen against Bristol City away.

pasty · Feb 11, 2013

Trailing 0-3 at half time against Palace, Gus brings on Vicente at the start of the second half and he scores 4 with no reply from Palace

KZNSeagull · Feb 11, 2013

According to some of the pre-match comments on here, we have been in a losing position before even taking the field. So, of all the matches we have won this year, they have all been won from a losing position.

Palace. They will fluke a goal in the first 5 minutes, but we will win 5-1.

maltaseagull · Feb 11, 2013

pasty said:
Trailing 0-3 at half time against Palace, Gus brings on Vicente at the start of the second half and he scores 4 with no reply from Palace

That's the one!

Icy Gull · Feb 11, 2013

If we don't turn around the dreadful statistic of not having come behind since the first game at the Amex soon, I doubt we'll even make the playoffs. A truly appalling statistic. We need to come from behind ( yeah yeah) to win a game to have any chance of a tilt at promotion, as we are not gonna take the lead in every game left this season.

gazingdown · Feb 11, 2013

It's one of those pointless stats in many ways.

To overcome it, we need to go a goal behind.

Now, I dunno about anyone else, I'd rather not go behind in the first place and just win the game straight up.

JBizzle · Feb 11, 2013

gazingdown said:
It's one of those pointless stats in many ways.

To overcome it, we need to go a goal behind.

Now, I dunno about anyone else, I'd rather not go behind in the first place and just win the game straight up.

Yep. A much more "glass half full" approach...

Biscuit · Feb 11, 2013

We won't.

As we won't get ourselves into a losing position to start with.

RM-Taylor · Feb 11, 2013

Cardiff away.

What?

Jimmy Grimble · Feb 11, 2013

gazingdown said:
It's one of those pointless stats in many ways.

To overcome it, we need to go a goal behind.

Now, I dunno about anyone else, I'd rather not go behind in the first place and just win the game straight up.

I'm not so sure it's pointless. It depends how it is phrased. When people say we haven't won a match from a losing position for 80 odd games it's a bit pointless because it doesn't account for the games we've won or drawn in that spell.

If people say in the last 30 odd games when we've been in a losing position we haven't managed to win the match - it starts to mean a bit more.

I expect we need to win 9 of our remaining 16 matches to be sure of a play off spot. I also expect we'll go a goal behind in at least 3 of those 16 matches (we've gone a goal behind in 12 matches already this season). If we continue our record of failing to come from behind to win, it means we'll only have 13 matches to get 9 wins. That's a very tough ask, which is why I think we'll need to break our duck before the end of the season.

Acker79 · Feb 11, 2013

Conboy said:
I'm not so sure it's pointless. It depends how it is phrased. When people say we haven't won a match from a losing position for 80 odd games it's a bit pointless because it doesn't account for the games we've won or drawn in that spell.

If people say in the last 30 odd games when we've been in a losing position we haven't managed to win the match - it starts to mean a bit more.

I expect we need to win 9 of our remaining 16 matches to be sure of a play off spot. I also expect we'll go a goal behind in at least 3 of those 16 matches (we've gone a goal behind in 12 matches already this season). If we continue our record of failing to come from behind to win, it means we'll only have 13 matches to get 9 wins. That's a very tough ask, which is why I think we'll need to break our duck before the end of the season.

This season we have conceded first 15 times, scored first 15 times and had 3 goalless draws.
When scoring first, W12 D3 L0
We have scored first, then got pegged back and fallen behind 0 times, i.e. we have never trailed at any point in a game we scored first in

So, we have been trailing in a match 15 times this season and come back to win 0 times,
We have been trailing in a match and managed to draw 6 times.

Last season after doncaster we conceded first 21 times, scored first 27 times, and had 4 goalless draws.
When scoring first, W19 D5 L3
We have scored first, then got pegged back and fallen behind 3 times (losing all three)

So, after the doncaster game last season, we trailed in 24 matches, and won 0 times.
We trailed in 24 matches and got 6 draws.

In Total since the doncaster game, we have been trailing at some point in 39* matches, and won** none of those matches, and got a draw 12 times.

Or to look at it another way, 11 points out of 102*** were rescued from a losing position

*Competitive games
**In regular time
***Five of the matches we fell behind in were cup games, 34 x 3 points available to be rescued = 102; one of the drawn games was a cup game so only 11 points earned from draws

5 Zero · Feb 11, 2013

Biscuit said:
We won't.

As we won't get ourselves into a losing position to start with.

Exactly this. What a ridiculous thread from the OP?! You're the Barcelona of the Championship after all, what was he thinking! I fully expect you to win every game 6-0 from here on in without letting the opposition so much as cross over the half way line. The only reason you haven't done this in your previous 30 games is to lull your opponents into a false sense of security. Amazing stuff!

Mo Gosfield · Feb 12, 2013

There are other sides who struggle to come from behind to win e.g Newcastle. It suggests something missing from the ' make-up ' of the team.
1 ) Is it that there is an underlying fragile confidence, which is always dented when the team falls behind?
2 ) Does it suggest no plan B? The manager has a game plan, which he sticks to, come rain or shine and it doesn't allow for falling behind.
3 ) Not enough firepower to rescue a game.
4 ) Not enough tactical nous or bravery from the manager, when trailing.
5) Not enough strong players in ' the engine-room ' ( i.e midfield ) to drive a team on when they have fallen behind.
6) Not enough players taking responsibility on the pitch ( not enough leaders )
Take your pick folks....I'm sure there are other theories out there as well.

The Wookiee · Feb 12, 2013

But we don't lose many games !!

banjo · Feb 12, 2013

Tonight we'll go a goal down and come back to win 2-1.

yxee · Feb 12, 2013

I don't agree that the stat is meaningless, as long as it is in the fan's and player's minds, it has an effect on the game.

Jimmy Grimble · Feb 12, 2013

Acker79 said:
This season we have conceded first 15 times, scored first 15 times and had 3 goalless draws.
When scoring first, W12 D3 L0
We have scored first, then got pegged back and fallen behind 0 times, i.e. we have never trailed at any point in a game we scored first in

So, we have been trailing in a match 15 times this season and come back to win 0 times,
We have been trailing in a match and managed to draw 6 times.

Last season after doncaster we conceded first 21 times, scored first 27 times, and had 4 goalless draws.
When scoring first, W19 D5 L3
We have scored first, then got pegged back and fallen behind 3 times (losing all three)

So, after the doncaster game last season, we trailed in 24 matches, and won 0 times.
We trailed in 24 matches and got 6 draws.

In Total since the doncaster game, we have been trailing at some point in 39* matches, and won** none of those matches, and got a draw 12 times.

Or to look at it another way, 11 points out of 102*** were rescued from a losing position

*Competitive games
**In regular time
***Five of the matches we fell behind in were cup games, 34 x 3 points available to be rescued = 102; one of the drawn games was a cup game so only 11 points earned from draws

So with these stats in mind, would you agree with the statement:

In order to reach the play offs, it is likely we will need to win at least one match in which we concede first by the end of the season.

With 16 games to go I'm sure there will be at least 3 matches in which we go a goal behind. As good as our record is when scoring first, I'm pretty sure we'll need to win one of those matches in which we (hypothetically) go behind to be sure of cementing a play off spot.

MattBackHome · Feb 12, 2013

Conboy said:
So with these stats in mind, would you agree with the statement:

In order to reach the play offs, it is likely we will need to win at least one match in which we concede first by the end of the season.

With 16 games to go I'm sure there will be at least 3 matches in which we go a goal behind. As good as our record is when scoring first, I'm pretty sure we'll need to win one of those matches in which we (hypothetically) go behind to be sure of cementing a play off spot.

I disagree.

Firstly because the games in which we concede first are less likely to be the games in which we expect wins. Secondly because if we are going for the playoffs by definition the defence has to improve, meaning fewer occasions of us going behind.

El Presidente · Feb 12, 2013

MattBackHome said:
I disagree.

Firstly because the games in which we concede first are less likely to be the games in which we expect wins. Secondly because if we are going for the playoffs by definition the defence has to improve, meaning fewer occasions of us going behind.

However, Gus has committed to playing a more expansive style for the rest of the season because we cannot afford to draw games, so I think the chances of us going behind will increase, irrespective of the quality of our defending.

We should try to be like Cardiff, effective but winning, their last eight games are W6 D2 L0 F8 A2 Points 20.

Acker79 · Feb 12, 2013

Conboy said:
So with these stats in mind, would you agree with the statement:

In order to reach the play offs, it is likely we will need to win at least one match in which we concede first by the end of the season.

I suspect so.

MattBackHome said:
I disagree.

Firstly because the games in which we concede first are less likely to be the games in which we expect wins. Secondly because if we are going for the playoffs by definition the defence has to improve, meaning fewer occasions of us going behind.

Like Birmingham when they had been beaten 5-0 by Barnsley the match before leaving them in 19th place while we were topped the table, in 20th place when we played the return fixture, or Ipswich who were in 23rd place in that match following the first birmingham match, or Blackburn who were midtable while we were hoping to close in on the play offs, or sheffield wednesday who were down in 20th place with among the worst home form?

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