How many points to make playoffs

pottert · Mar 1, 2012

How many points will we need to make the playoffs.forest finished 6th last season with 75.will that be enough this season?

To get 75 points we need 22 points from 13 games ave 1.69 points per game
Currently we have 53 points from 33 games. Ave 1.60 points per game

How many points will we end up with?

Upper Library · Mar 1, 2012

As Gus would say - one game at a time. His press conference this week summed this up brilliantly.

CP 0 3 BHA · Mar 1, 2012

I can see it being 77 or 78 with so many form teams in contention.

We're one of them.

pottert · Mar 1, 2012

CP 0 3 BHA said:
I can see it being 77 or 78 with so many form teams in contention.

We're one of them.

With so many teams in contention won't they all take points off each other and lower the points needed

CP 0 3 BHA · Mar 1, 2012

pottert said:
With so many teams in contention won't they all take points off each other and lower the points needed

Possibly - but they can all drop 17 or 18 points and still get to 77.

kevo · Mar 2, 2012

Looking at our run-in, 22 points is very attainable - I reckon we could get as many as 25 (total 78). Assuming the other contenders do take points off each other, we are in with a really good shout.

Doncaster (a) W
Cardiff (h) D
Portsmouth (h) W
Blackpool (a) L
Derby (h) W
Forest (a) D
Middlesbrough (h) W
Burnley (a) W
Reading (h) D
West Ham (a) L
Watford (h) W
Birmingham (h) D
Barnsley (a) W

Total 25 points (78 overall).

Triggaaar · Mar 2, 2012

kevo said:
Derby (h) W
Middlesbrough (h) W
Burnley (a) W
Barnsley (a) W

This putting a W next to the name is easy isn't it. I hope you're right (total wise)

kevo · Mar 2, 2012

Triggaaar said:
This putting a W next to the name is easy isn't it. I hope you're right (total wise)

I also said we would only draw our home matches with Cardiff, Reading and Birmingham (and away at Forest) and lose to West Ham and Blackpool.

Not unrealistic imho.

Rugrat · Mar 2, 2012

I have us making 77 and missing play offs by 1 point only problem is can't really predict where the upsets will come for anyone.

Have kept track of all games since beginning of Feb for all the leading contenders and out of 30 have managed to get 20 correct, who would have got these for instance

Blackpool v Pompey
WHU v Palarse
Boro v Reading
Leeds v Coventry

on that basis haven't got a clue but will be less than my predicted 77!!

beardy gull · Mar 2, 2012

pottert said:
How many points will we need to make the playoffs.forest finished 6th last season with 75.will that be enough this season?

To get 75 points we need 22 points from 13 games ave 1.69 points per game
Currently we have 53 points from 33 games. Ave 1.60 points per game

How many points will we end up with?

Forest didn't NEED 75 points to finish 6th. They got 75. They didn't NEED 75.

mune ni kamome · Mar 2, 2012

On the other hand we could win 8 in a row and be over the line with 5 games to go

Triggaaar · Mar 2, 2012

kevo said:
I also said we would only draw our home matches with Cardiff, Reading and Birmingham (and away at Forest) and lose to West Ham and Blackpool.

Yeah I know, I wasn't suggesting you're crazy, just saying it looks easier than it is.

Not unrealistic imho.

Unrealistic - no, but difficult - yes.

drew · Mar 2, 2012

beardy gull said:
Forest didn't NEED 75 points to finish 6th. They got 75. They didn't NEED 75.

Exactly, they only needed 72 because their GD was far superior to Leeds.

Simster · Mar 2, 2012

I suspect it is going to be a high number required, because at this stage there are so many clubs still in with a chance. Indeed, we're in a situation where the team as low as 9th could still finish top if they went on a storming run, and the top 12 could all finish in the top 6.

My guess is that 77 points will get a play off place, and that 4th - 8th will end up separated by about 4 points.

beardy gull · Mar 2, 2012

Simster said:
I suspect it is going to be a high number required, because at this stage there are so many clubs still in with a chance. Indeed, we're in a situation where the team as low as 9th could still finish top if they went on a storming run, and the top 12 could all finish in the top 6.

My guess is that 77 points will get a play off place, and that 4th - 8th will end up separated by about 4 points.

That's 3 points more than has EVER been required (since the Championship began). Agree it will be high this season though.

saafend_seagull · Mar 2, 2012

76 probably - win every home game and donny away!

kevo · Mar 2, 2012

mune ni kamome said:
On the other hand we could win 8 in a row and be over the line with 5 games to go

Yes, everyone knows we win all our matches in March. So that's seven on the spin coming up...

Acker79 · Mar 2, 2012

To account for the fact you only need a better goal difference/one point more than seventh place, I've added them to my table:

Average Mean is the (numbers added) divided (the number of numbers)
Average Mode is the most frequently occurring number

(click to enlarge)

Craig4004 · Mar 2, 2012

mune ni kamome said:
On the other hand we could win 8 in a row and be over the line with 5 games to go

As if we'd ever do that in march

? Haha you just never know! :albion2:

Dawn Korus · Mar 2, 2012

Who knows how many we may need. Let's just hold on and enjoy the ride.

Whatever happens this season, it's been a cracking one and exceeded all of my wildest dreams

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