The Official 98th Tour de France, thread, 2011.

Stat Brother · Jun 30, 2011

So come one, come all, welcome back to the summer.

I'm so ready for this:-
Ive read 'How I Won The Yellow Jumper', by Ned Boulting.
I have, Racing through the Dark: The Fall and Rise of David Millar, ready to go.
I've read CycleSport cover to cover.
I've listened to The Real Peloton & Flamme Rouge podcasts
and I'm just starting to build a winter hack.

Let the crap predictions begin.

As usual I'm less than convinced by Andy Schleck, If Contador wins, AS will be second, if not neither will podium.

Contador
Schleck
Gesink

or

Sanchez
Gesink
Basso

Green:-
Bit left field But Gilbert.
Best Brit:-
Wiggins, for the last time.

Pantani · Jun 30, 2011

So excited cannot wait.

First of all I have set myself a personal task for this Tour, I'm gonna ride every day that the race is on, (been a bit lazy lately). Of course I won't be riding as far as the Tour but I think quarter distance every day will be perfectly possible. So stage 1 at 191km = 48km or 30 miles give or take a bit. I will even try and emulate the stages, although I'm not sure which local hills represent the Galibier or Alpe d'Huez. Wish me luck.

On to predictions:

First let me say that I am standing down from my previous claim that I would totally ignore Contador. They seem to have changed the rules a bit to make him look less guilty and it would be impossible to just pretend he is not riding.

So for yellow:

Contador will win, easily. Unless the others gang up on him. However, it seems Contador spent the whole of the Giro gifting people stages so they would help him out in the Tour if needs be. So I cannot see that happening.

Andrew Schleck will follow Contador all the time, but attack like a complete idiot at the wrong time, or when it is too late, or something stupid. Him and his brother are just terrible tacticians. Second for him.

Third: Bradley Wiggins. His ride in the Dauphin was absolute class. He will hold on in the mountains and take time on the other contenders in the time trial and TTT.

and to disagree entirely with SB, Basso to finish outside the top twenty. He is been dreadful all season from what I have seen, getting dropped early on every climb and trailing in Wiggins' wake at the Dauphin, finishing the race 26th overall and nearly 25 minutes down.

Green Jersey:

Cav to take this, with the new points system favouring stage winners and less bonuses for those in breakaways. If not Cav then Hushovd. My other tip would have been Peter Sagan but Liquigas are retarded and did not pick him.

Polka Dot jersey:

The hardest one to predict as someone will get in a breakaway on the first mountain stage and gain a massive lead, if they are good enough they will hold on (I believe this is known as doing a Virenque!) That being said Gilbert here SB. A couple of long breakaways should see him home in this classification. Outside chances for his team mate Van Den Broek or one of the Rabobank trio of Gesink, Mollema or Ten Dam.

Young rider: Kreuziger

1st stage predo to come on Saturday, after I have recce'd it via the medium of riding my own bike on entirely different roads.

Blues Rock DJ · Jun 30, 2011

Drug testers rub hands in eager anticipation !!

Easy 10 · Jun 30, 2011

Stoichkov · Jun 30, 2011

Contador is miles ahead of anybody else.

Kreuziger is my outside bet for a decent finish

Gilbert to take Yellow after stage 1

Falkor · Jun 30, 2011

is this not like the 3rd official thread

Stat Brother · Jun 30, 2011

Cheers Easy.

dennis · Jun 30, 2011

GC:
1/. Contador by a mile as previously stated by stat brother
2/. Andy Schlek again, but will be awarded the yellow in August when Contador is banned and Scarponi will be awarded the Giro.
3/. Wiggo

Green:
I really think it’s Cav’s this time.
If it all goes tits, I would like to see Ben Swift but I think the new points system will do it for Cavendish.

White:
Gesink

Polka:
Contador but will be worn by outside punt John Gadret.

Horton's halftime iceberg · Jun 30, 2011

Hurrah, wish I was following it around this year. However just two days up north for me this year.

The Brits are well represented this year, with Swift making his debut, Wiggens has a better team around him this year however only one time time to do damage on the climers.

Anyone know what channels are showing it and who is presenting.

Need to get a wall chart as well.

Stat Brother · Jun 30, 2011

The Giro was stupidly tough, and although Contador, proved he was head and shoulders above everyone else, he might have 'put it all out there', thinking he wasn't riding Le Tour, anyway.

I think 5 of his team will be riding both, which isn't going to be easy on them, although I think AC is far less reliant on them, than say Armstrong. Daniel Navarro Garcia, being the except that proves the rule.

chucky1973 · Jun 30, 2011

what the current odds on Wiggins winning? I am watching a section of Stage 15 when is passes about 5 miles from where I will be at the time

Stat Brother · Jun 30, 2011

Pantani said:
So excited cannot wait.

First of all I have set myself a personal task for this Tour, I'm gonna ride every day that the race is on, (been a bit lazy lately). Of course I won't be riding as far as the Tour but I think quarter distance every day will be perfectly possible. So stage 1 at 191km = 48km or 30 miles give or take a bit. I will even try and emulate the stages, although I'm not sure which local hills represent the Galibier or Alpe d'Huez. Wish me luck.

Good stuff, great idea. How many times will you have to go up Ditchling to represent the Alpe d'Heuz?

Pantani said:
to disagree entirely with SB, Basso to finish outside the top twenty. He is been dreadful all season from what I have seen, getting dropped early on every climb and trailing in Wiggins' wake at the Dauphin, finishing the race 26th overall and nearly 25 minutes down.

Me too!!, HHI pressured me into the thread, to quick, and I hadn't given it enough thought :lol:

.
I'll come back with a provisional third, on the off chance AC fails and drags AS, down with him.

Pantani said:
Polka Dot jersey:

The hardest one to predict as someone will get in a breakaway on the first mountain stage and gain a massive lead, if they are good enough they will hold on (I believe this is known as doing a Virenque!) That being said Gilbert here SB. A couple of long breakaways should see him home in this classification. Outside chances for his team mate Van Den Broek or one of the Rabobank trio of Gesink, Mollema or Ten Dam.

Gilbert is no mountain goat, I see him more for green, with a couple of stage wins (deffo 4), then ripping up the intermediate points.

Stat Brother · Jun 30, 2011

Can someone talk me through Garmin's team selection:-

51 Thor Hushovd (Nor)
52 Thomas Danielson (USA)
53 Julian Dean (NZl)
54 Tyler Farrar (USA)
55 Ryder Hesjedal (Can)
56 David Millar (GBr)
57 Ramunas Navardauskas (Ltu)
58 Christian Vande Velde (USA)
59 David Zabriskie (USA)

Because the way I see it doesn't make sense.

Danielson, NSC's Ryder (another year, same crowbar :lol:

), and CVV all GC?.
Farrar & Hoshovd both sprinters?
Dean lead out, last man.
Millar & Zab, TT, hard miles, plus break away for Miller.
I've no idea what RN does.

Is it just a case of 'let the road decide', for GC and Sprint stage wins/green?

Pantani · Jun 30, 2011

Stat Brother said:
Good stuff, great idea. How many times will you have to go up Ditchling to represent the Alpe d'Heuz?

L'Alpe d'Huez 1,100m of climbing, Ditchling Beacon 134m of climbing. So eight times. But factoring my lack of fitness in once a day will have to do, once they reach the mountains of course. To be honest I will be struggling to ride at all by the first rest day. 30ish miles a day for nine days, it soon builds up.

Stat Brother said:
Me too!!, HHI pressured me into the thread, to quick, and I hadn't given it enough thought .
I'll come back with a provisional third, on the off chance AC fails and drags AS, down with him.

Gilbert is no mountain goat, I see him more for green, with a couple of stage wins (deffo 4), then ripping up the intermediate points.

I just figured Gilbert would be in an epic break or two on hilly stages. Not sure now though, what with the monster days in the mountains in the third week.

Pantani · Jun 30, 2011

Stat Brother said:
Can someone talk me through Garmin's team selection:-

51 Thor Hushovd (Nor)
52 Thomas Danielson (USA)
53 Julian Dean (NZl)
54 Tyler Farrar (USA)
55 Ryder Hesjedal (Can)
56 David Millar (GBr)
57 Ramunas Navardauskas (Ltu)
58 Christian Vande Velde (USA)
59 David Zabriskie (USA)

Because the way I see it doesn't make sense.

Danielson, NSC's Ryder (another year, same crowbar ), and CVV all GC?.
Farrar & Hoshovd both sprinters?
Dean lead out, last man.
Millar & Zab, TT, hard miles, plus break away for Miller.
I've no idea what RN does.

Is it just a case of 'let the road decide', for GC and Sprint stage wins/green?

It is simple Garmin Slipstream and Cervelo Test Team merged. No one was strong enough to actually make a proper team out of the available riders, so they just mashed the teams together, forgetting to hire any domestiques.

Their problem is they are all good riders, but not great, bar Hushovd. Their three GC contenders will flatter to deceive, one or two will make the top 10 without ever threatening to win the thing.

Hushovd isn't really a lead out type sprinter anyway, and Farrar just isn't good enough to beat Cav.

Millar and Zabriskie, the same, will do well in the TT but won't win it.

I believe RN gets the water for all the big names.

So basically a team of individuals that can finish in the top 10 of every type of stage, but with no hope of winning anything. Except Thor and the green jersey. Thats the way I read it anyway.

Stat Brother · Jun 30, 2011

8 times

, go on then, I'll count them for you, while eating and ice cream and looking at Falmer!.

Stat Brother · Jun 30, 2011

1 domestique in a team of 9.
At least Sky have it the right way round, with 8 dom's and 1 leader.

Pantani · Jun 30, 2011

dennis said:
GC:
1/. Contador by a mile as previously stated by stat brother
2/. Andy Schlek again, but will be awarded the yellow in August when Contador is banned and Scarponi will be awarded the Giro.
3/. Wiggo

Green:
I really think it’s Cav’s this time.
If it all goes tits, I would like to see Ben Swift but I think the new points system will do it for Cavendish.

White:
Gesink

Polka:
Contador but will be worn by outside punt John Gadret.

Good call on Gadret, he has been excellent this year.

Stat Brother · Jul 1, 2011

keaton · Jul 1, 2011

Zabriskie's a vegan isn't he? i thought cyclists basically ate steak and eggs throughout the tour

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