Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

Register Log in

[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2023-24 Season]



Braggfan

Braggfan

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded
May 12, 2014
1,838
Papa Lazarou said:
To try and explain, that plot represents the outcome of 23 different computer forecast runs, each with slightly different parameters, resolution etc. It allows forecasters to understand the chances of any specific synoptic outcome being 'true'.

This may help. This diagram is today's (latest) GFS ensemble, but in a better format. This one shows surface temp (at 2m), rainfall and snow percentage chance for somewhere Worthingish.

View attachment 132381

The Operational Run, which is the one published and used by most automated phone apps is the thick black line. This run and the thick blue (the control) are both run at a higher resolution to the others, so should be more reliable (resolution refers to the number of data points modelled globally per the forecast). both of these runs go for the possible N / NE / E blast from about the 21st, with sub zero daytime / night-time temperatures and undoubtedly snow. They are in the cold cluster I've marked.

Alternatively, there are milder options available.

It's a hard one to call.

There are of course many other models to look at. the ECMWF is the best of the rest (probably the most reliable of them all), but they only provide ALL their data if you pay for it. What we can see is their Op run, which goes coldish (but it pushes the coldest air to our West into the Atlantic) and their ensemble 'clusters'. These show the grouped options available in their ensemble.

View attachment 132382

This might seem hard to interpret, but it shows the clusters top to bottom over 3 days (left to right). Each shows the relative pressure over NW Europe.

Cluster 1, with 19 members shows high pressure over Greenland and the pole, with low pressure to the south. This would be cold for Scotland and Northern England, but would probably be milder and wet for us. This group keeps that setup throughout.

Cluster 2 & 3 with 13 & 9 members both start with a Greenland high with a mid Atlantic ridge. These would all be cold for the UK, with snow. They both keep the cold for the 3 days.

Cluster 4, with 6 members for the UK is much the same as cluster 1.

Cluster 5 from our perspective is like 2 & 3.

So, from this run, for the period 21-23 Jan. We have:

Cold & Snow chance for Sussex (cluster:2, 3, 5) = 26
Milder for Sussex, but colder periods (1 & 4) = 25

On a knife edge.
Click to expand...


I'm really sorry, this reply is well over due especially as you went to the trouble of explaining it for me, which I really appreciate, thank you. I think I must have been having a brain fog when I first looked at it and posted my comment, but your reply was great and made it very clear.

I've been checking those sites regualrly since now that I'm understanding them. It's always intersting to read your thoughts on the weather and the insights you glean from the data. Cheers
 




Giraffe

Giraffe

VERY part time moderator
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patron
Aug 8, 2005
26,597
Mortdecai said:
d3c05736e2252eb5a1cd0ed5792eac84.jpg

We had a bit over the last few days. So last night the missus and I decided to clear the driveway. It was -18c but no wind so we got out my little toy I bought during the summer. It’s fantastic. Only took a hour or so.
Click to expand...

Potential goal of the season right here. Definitely the best post of this already disappointing winter. Enjoy it.
 




Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
64,310
Withdean area


SK1NT

SK1NT

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2003
8,731
Thames Ditton
Mortdecai said:
d3c05736e2252eb5a1cd0ed5792eac84.jpg

We had a bit over the last few days. So last night the missus and I decided to clear the driveway. It was -18c but no wind so we got out my little toy I bought during the summer. It’s fantastic. Only took a hour or so.
Click to expand...

What an awesome picture. Very jealous. Almost feel like setting this up as my pc wallpaper just to get my fill of snow
 




D

dangull

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2013
5,116
Possible snow predicted this Sunday even at sea level in the Sussex area looking at the BBC news weather forecast.
 


LamieRobertson

LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,858
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Last edited:




























Driver8

Driver8

On the road...
NSC Patron
Jul 31, 2005
15,988
North Wales
The Award-Winning Official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2020-21 Season]

LamieRobertson said:
I see you’ve chosen a slightly different angle this time with no hanging basket for me to comment on :D
Click to expand...

They are still there and not looking any better!

Here’s a view from the front (I know we need to cut the hedges!)

1252628ab7736a0fcad3ce9b9895489e.jpg
 






SK1NT

SK1NT

Well-known member
Sep 9, 2003
8,731
Thames Ditton
Driver8 said:
They are still there and not looking any better!

Here’s a view from the front (I know we need to cut the hedges!)

1252628ab7736a0fcad3ce9b9895489e.jpg
Click to expand...

What a gorgeous location. I can't remember who it was but someone posted a lovely scenic pic with great views, with a table and some wine on it... may have been you driver.

80% chances of snow in thames ditton sunday ... woohoo. Please don't le me down weather.
 


You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page

Albion and Premier League latest from Sky Sports


Top
Link Here