Agreed, but maybe best to use the qualitative rather than statisitically justify. Of course, relegation threatened teams might pull out a big one, and some may find form changes (a la Cardiff) so it is indeed arrogant to assume they will turn up with 3 points gift wrapped for us. Having said...
The bottom 17 starts at Preston in 8th! They are outside PO candidates for goodness sake - calling them 'bottom 17' is ridiculous, even if factually correct. Surely the relevant stat is the we have lost only once to a team with no chance of promotion?
No - it's not. Bristol City were poor - it was an easy win. And Newcastle didn't have too many problems at QPR. I know what you are getting at, but let's not overdo it. POTENTIALLY, all games are difficult, but sometimes in practice they are not - yesterday being a prime example.