It could easily be a lot more than that if ICU's are swamped and staff are lost to self isolation. Remember it was only 8 months or so back that Itallian doctors had to allocate ventilators to those who they thought had the best hope of survival, what a horrible situation to be in. New cases...
The last lockdown actually worked ! cases plummeted but, we came back from that too quickly without adequate ( not World Beating ) Test, Track and Trace in place. We thought we were going to get swamped with cases by the end of March, here we are in October and new cases may well hit 20,000 a...