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I'm fully aware of how government policy research functions. The UK-centric studies are based upon modelling work (i.e. as you say, extrapolating trends). Without introducing the policy in the first place, how on earth would you propose the impact of the policy measure is calculated? As I said...

What other kind of evidence would you expect for social policy? I'm not being difficult, it's a genuine question, as if all quantitative and qualitative theoretical research is discounted as evidence we're all shooting in the dark and what we're left with is complete policy inertia. I'm also...

I'm not, I'm thoroughly depressed, as it's yet further evidence of this government disposing of evidence-based policy in favour of ideology-based policy (and I say this as someone who was broadly supportive of the Tories and Coalition when they came to power). Research suggested that a 45p...