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We'll have to wait and see how may votes UKIP take from the Conservatives and LibDems as a protest vote against the Greens and Labour. 2 horse race between Sen and Lucas with all the other candidates classed as outsiders.

With local council elections being held on the same day an anti Green backlash could see Lucas losing her seat. Another interesting issue in Brighton Pavilion is seeing who comes in 3rd , will it be the Conservatives or UKIP ?

They took 36% of the vote in Grimsby last month , the figure was similar in Boston too. Doncaster (Ed Milibland's constituency) is also a UKIP target seat now.

Some people will have long term memories too , those 18 years of Conservative government comes to mind :thumbsup:

If the Sweaties gain independence the Tories will be in with a chance of winning the General Election as they currently only have 1 MP in Scotland and Labour has a total of 41.

My prediction for next May - Lab 38% , Conservatives 31% , UKIP 18% , LibDem 7% , Others 6% (Greens , PC , SNP , NI parties)