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Because if they judge that he WASN'T going to get to the ball first, then it wasn't a goal scoring opportunity at all. That element of doubt, is why he isn't sent off. :shrug:

You can watch it again (at 0:33) here: He might get to the ball before the Spurs defender who ultimately hacks it away. You could go as far as to suggest that he PROBABLY gets there first. He might not have. It is really not nailed on.

Not quite the case. Bounanotte was correctly booked - he stood over the ball, then backed away, and THEN made another move back towards the ball. That second movement was always going to result in a card. Moder's card, on the other hand, was RIDICULOUSY harsh. He literally had no chance to move...

The award of the penalty, and a yellow card, seems a reasonable punishment for the offence. Whether the incident did represent an OBVIOUS GOAL SCORING OPPORTUNITY is (in this case) subjective - Welbeck didn't actually have control of the ball, and might not have got to it first, had he not been...