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Ha ! Finishing above 3 clubs is *always* the most likely route to survival !!

For you maybe but the bookies are far more generous with their definition of "nailed on" . ie: its not.

Yes. In one season They made the Europa League. But outside of that in last 5 years - . its 2 seasons where they've finished just above relegation by a few points and one season where they didn't do just about enough. -relegated with 33 points and that was only a few years ago.