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  1. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    when German economy is in the toilet, all of europe will be severely affected regardless of EU membership. dont think people here realise quite how bad the data is.
  2. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    increasing taxes will also hurt growth, bring on recession, so end up in the same place. there is a right curve take that rates are rising so they can be lowered later on, aiding the next growth cycle. we're heading for recesssion regardless of rates and tax rates, the production and prices...
  3. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    if BoE didnt raise rates, pound would suffer, increasing prices of imports. add to that claims they hadnt done "something". all the time there is inflation way above target, and US raises rates, we'll follow. even though everyone knows its not doing to job and we need energy to come down...
  4. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    which policies were you keen to see?
  5. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    unless he's going to COP27 to tell everyone to start switching to nuclear, its a waste of time. just a talking shop ruminanating over how bad everyone has been in the past without real solutions. time to move agenda on if serious or stop talking about it.
  6. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    couple of things in there. first thats the boarders rate for today, not 80's-90's. GPs today earn north of 100k, and pharmacy is a pretty lucrative profession. live modestly could afford that outlay on those incomes if you want it enough. with lower housing costs and relativly lower fees, im...
  7. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    reckon Braverman is a lightning rod to draw all the attention, then as other suggest bin off when appropriate. people in boats are not the immigration solution for business (they are all claiming asylum right?), while under the radar there are increasing relaxations of permitted immigration...
  8. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    worth pointing out most (all?) billionaries have their wealth in assets, in property or usually companies. their wealth goes up and down with the stock markets. the thing about people valuing money applies to someone earning 80k as 180k or 1m. they are insulated from a £50 spend eitherway. a...
  9. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    people dont look at data abroad, perfer to believe we alone have inflation and face recession. the German data is very stark, as driver of european economy will blow back on us all.
  10. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    on Gilts watch, 10y is back to not-a-budget level, 30y is below. compared to German and US bonds which have risen ~0.3 and 0.5% they are lower than trend.
  11. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    the countries with highest GDP growth tend to be the east europeans, starting from a lower base. unsure how you measure public services objectively, i dont believe Croatia, Greece, Hungry are the best. interesting outlier is Ireland with consistent highest growth, which has lowest corporate...
  12. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    well not really. 200 odd MPs representing their constituents. thats the idea of representitive democracy.
  13. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    to be fair its not absurd, apart from Cooper none of them have looked like leadership material. the selection of Truss, lacking any leadership, charisma, economic competance or administrative ability, was absurd.
  14. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    been many female candidates. including Diane Abbott on one (only black candidate i think), last time there was Nandy and Long-Bailey, before that Cooper.
  15. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    but what about the leadership election?
  16. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    apart from the 40-odd% voting for him, selection in a ultra Tory seat to be here in the first place. weird narrative he cant get any votes because racist tories, though there certainly some, its almost as if others are pushing this as applying to the rest of the country.
  17. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    trouble with the membership is they're easily sold on tax cuts even if they are not the beneficaries or they dont help the situation. idealism over pragmatism. same energy as calls to nationalise anything within Labour ranks. they get sold on easy to say difficult to deliver policies.
  18. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    people need to pay more attention to the fact 5% for the top rate was worth £2bn, 1p on income tax about £5bn. we probably need a decade of higher general tax to sort out the public finance. or carry on borrowing when every other country is try to do the same (so rates go up, cost more, more...
  19. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    true. however there's a lot of external turmoil. US bonds have continued up all week, German inflation and PPI (input cost to producers) are record highs. we're in for a recession and the only question is how hard and long. people have become very used to the relative benign markets and cheap...
  20. beorhthelm

    [Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

    its fun, however you couldnt plan for Kwarteng to do a parliaments worth of cuts in one go without passing OBR or even any real briefing. had they just got the energy cap and maybe one of the to do list done, it wouldnt have had the impact. they were undone by their hubris. sterling was rising...
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