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it would make sense for them to retreat from government and try to rebuild as the party of alternative. i also recall a piece many weeks ago that you cant really do "coalition" with less than 20-30 seats because you need a number of members to be in the government for it to be meaningful. i...

from the Electoral Calculus site, in % so we can see the comparison: Con 36.5%, Lab 29.8%, Lib 9.0%, and in Scotland SNP 53% blimey.

i'd trust the pollsters to be able to add up their results more than you :lol: we're used to seeing national polling extrapolated out to seat counts, the IPSOS one is seat by seat. or at least those likly to shift, they dont bother polling in Horsham or Liverpool.

and looking at the numbers Labour may well have actually gained many seats in England.

the point is that the strangness is due to the difference in methodology. we've become so used to a narrow range that we assume they are correct (because those producing them tell us...). however telephone polling and stopping people in the streets are biased towards certain demographics, they...

the YouGov seems more consistant with what we've been given over the past few weeks. i understand this is a telephone poll, as many have been. the IPSOS is a different creature, with people at polling stations interviewed. so any bias in a telephone polling is removed and you have a much...

erm... wtf? no polling had conservatives over 300. taxi for pollsters.

they certainly are all telling porkies, but thats not what the IFS have said exactly. for a start, the cutting 12bn is perfectly possible, just no one know where it will fall. there was a 85Bn overspend the past year, there's places to cut. the question is what services suffer, not is it...

if Miliband becomes PM the stone of Labour commandments might be often seen, and i'd expect the promise to not make any agreement with SNP to be repeated alot. its been pretty unmemorable generally. main parties concern most with just keeping their core vote interested and not drawing middle...

to be fair, the arguments will be made because its good for filling column inches and airtime. as you say there are precedents and from reading/watching this week its pretty clear there are procedures and protocol in place , its just lots of huff and puff on all sides. whats more...

i think its one pundits opinion - he even says so himself - going against the grain. most interesting thing on that page is the post from 4th May showing the polling for Sheffield Hallam naming Clegg, against the polling based on party. appears he is supported and will hold.

you shouldnt be so dismissive of the betting. this isnt just blokes having a tenner on Miliband/Cameron. there are many professional players in these markets, they do a lot of research and analysis to back substantial bets, often with access to information not necessarily in the public domain...

i'll just leave this here, posted in another thread and i'm sure no one wants to miss it.

"spectre" is very appropriate, feared but really just an illusion of something.

yes it is. so you are supporting further cuts to the tune of £80bn+ immediately, right?

maybe she's seen the polling for Ball's seat, and knows he's a thousand tactical voters away from doing the lecture circuit?

aye, havent heard anything new for a week or two. the manifestos were largley rehashed statements of everything said in the passed few months, some meat on the bones but largely ignore/brush over the most important issues on the horizon. far too much focus on SNP and how coalition will/want be...

first, i missed "n't" as in "isn't" (late night posting...). it was a rhetorical question. secondly i quoted the pertinent part relvant to the point i was making. which is, that Miliband and Balls have made a campaign around "cost of living", of asking people to judge if they are better or...

is that Miliband's central theme? are you any better off under Tories - if not vot Labour. and the typical question every election for that matter. bit condesending to say people cant use this as a measure for who they want to elect, especially when the politicans use it so much.

theres a bit more going on than that. some polling use the previous voting to apply a projection on the don't knows. if you don't say or didn't vote, then that already inaccurate projection becomes more inaccurate. or boarder line guesswork. other polls ignore the don't knows altogether so...