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isnt a marginal seat at all with 16k majority. if half the tory vote either abstained or voted UKIP it still wouldnt be enough without tactical voting from Labour. Newark is going to show just how much of the protest was aimed squarly at EU/immigration, rather than general dissatisfaction.

this. Tories have an actualy numerical majority in Newark, accounting from some votes away from Labour and alot from Liberals, UKIP would have to bag half the Tory voters to win.