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True, but in so few games the most likely explanation for the large discrepancy is misfortune, not ability. It's true we've ended up a couple of goals short of our expected season total over the last two seasons (91% and 94%) and you might reasonably expect this in a below average side. I...

Yeah, and also 2 of our best 5 in the PL have already happened this season. More extreme expected goal differences either way could be a feature of this season.

Yes, at least using this particular site's xGs. I'd guess there are lots of places doing their own particular xG analysis and they'd vary slightly. Looking at the season so far, if you disregard "big 6" matches it's reasonably encouraging IMO. We've out-performed the opposition in every other...

For those interested these are our match by match expected goals/expected goals against since promotion (from understat.com). Positive expected goal difference and actual wins in green. It shows how wretched we were in last season's run-in.