Actually i'm using logic and history here.
Logic and an understanding of Soviet history will lead one to the conclusion that a plane brought down by Ukranian seperatists (with a Russian built missile) wanting to rejoin the Federation of Russia will undoubtedly have some clandestine link back...
Putin won't make too much of a big deal of it. He's still got the blood stains of Russian assistance in bringing down the passenger plane in the Ukraine on his hands.
The Turkish Military (the Kemalists) will always lean more towards the west because of its founders secular vision. They have no love for anything much tied to Islam. And the military in Turkey are a powerful force still in politics there.