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Good call. I haven't devoted that much thought to it, but this seems a plausible hierarchy at present (a week is a long time in politics, of course). As I indicated on another thread, it's Ashcroft's marginal polling which is most revealing. On a separate note, as you've wisely refused a bet...

You are charming. And how do you think bookmakers open their prices out of interest?

That Lib Dems prediction sounds about right to me. I think you might be pleasantly surprised by UKIP, and think they'll get about double that, while being reckless in Rochester. What's your most likely scenario for the GE itself? Or is it too open-ended to call?

Westdene, I do appreciate that things are looking up for you UKIPs at the moment, but there's a reason why bookies place odds, and that's because they've done their homework, rather than viewing things through purple-and-yellow-tinged spectacles. Despite NSC's Could UKIP form a government at the...

It would be the best option, because nobody would know what to do. The SNP would not insist on another independence referendum; they're not going to push for another one until they know they'll win. As an option it would be fantastic, because it's the most likely to produce quite profound...