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Not really, but sometimes we have to learn things the hard way.

Oh. Something else I got wrong on the election, then ...

Top post. Although a few things: -- the only news agenda they drive is in the press, who depend on them for their sales. I was struck by the extent to which the broadcast media pretty much ignored them -- you're spot on about what the parties need to do in campaigns. Labour needs to construct a...

You've got that one right -- a frugal few months ahead for me (still I won't have Piglets pies and Harvey's offering temptation).

You've well and truly avoided that option. In future, stop relying on extremely marginal opinion polls, and just think about either the shy Tory or late incumbent swing, or both.

Let us know your decision, constituency and rationale for it. :thumbsup:

I'm lumping on the spread betting market: SELL Con seats

I can't confirm a Labour lead in the national polls. I don't even expect Labour to get more seats than the Tories (because the view that they are nasty meany selfish spiteful vindictive has stuck, and they -- the greatest electoral machine -- haven't won a majority now for 23 years, check back...

Yup. That really is a bizarre prediction, way out of the kilter with the others (see: http://www.may2015.com for evidence). Still, perhaps that's the last poll we'll see for a while selected by Titanic. He'll be on a new thread trying to insist that, despite not getting a majority, because the...

Two points on this poll. First, the Tories have been running leads on ICM since January, so this final poll is hardly good news for them. Nor is the second point, the 'raw data' is showing a clear Labour lead (37% to 33%). The raw data is then adjusted according to how likely each person...

What do you make of the pollster analysis that points in a very different direction, or the first story on this site?: http://politicalbetting.com

Only with the bookies/punters. The Tories have pulled the gap in the opinion polls -- which are far more important than what bets people have had -- but it's been neck-and-neck for a while now, as looking at any 'poll of polls' will tell you. What's even more important than national polls is...

Let's all have a thread of NSC harmony ps the punters have it wrong, the pollsters have it right

Still don't think they'll get enough between them. Give it 80-odd hours, and we'll find out. Go and post on the thread opened by Brighton Lines, and we can compare then.

Corrected for you :thumbsup:

Am going up to London to do a large lunch, where we've wangled corkage. So, seven bottles of wine planned between the four of us. Might have a few more afterwards but, thereafter, need to get home to get an early night in, as am working in the morning. The latest I'll be up for is to see the...

Sir Nicholas Macpherson, the permanent secretary to the Treasury, has argued that the 2008 financial crisis was “a banking crisis pure and simple”, contradicting Conservative claims that it was caused by Labour over-spending, Patrick Wintour reports. [Macpherson’s] surprising remarks come after...

Labour back in the lead in the poll of polls: http://may2015.com Tories are still strongly favoured by punters at the bookies, and you can get sell on 288 seats with sporting index. Looks a good bet to me, as I think they'll end up somewhere in the 270s. Political betters tend to overestimate...

I should have been working this afternoon, but have distracted myself looking at these two pages: http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-polls-this-is-how-ed-miliband-gets-to-323-seats-and-becomes-prime-minister/ http://lordashcroftpolls.com/constituency-polls/ The New Statesman article is...

They don't. They just select a random, though representative, sample and ask them how they will vote. They may also ask how they voted in the previous election, but that wouldn't exclude a first time voter from being included.