I'd agree with most of this, although Rodriguez might be required, especially if CMS and Hoskins are no-gos and, horror of horrors, Ulloa gets injured, suspended, etc. His availability and form really looks integral to our chances of getting in to the play-offs.
Think you're broadly right with this assessment, although you've missed out on Dunk, who has been excellent in three recent games -- Hull at home, QPR and yesterday against Bolton.
Our best starting XI is the one that started yesterday, with Upson for probably Dunk, and Orlandi for JFC.