Yes exactly that. There is some weighting given to previous seasons but overall how English sides do this season will go a long way to deciding if we get that 5th CL spot.
If you want some bedtime reading here is how the points are awarded...
Last time we were outside of the top 2 was the 16-17 season. That was the season Leicester got the the Champions League QF but were our only representives left by then. Man City and Arsenal got knocked out in the round of 16. Spurs finished 3rd in their group and ended up in the Europa League...