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I agree with all that you're saying and I can't fault the logic behind it. BUT, if this season has shown us anything, it's that logic doesn't help much. Teams in all positions can win or lose against just about anybody. We're all thinking that the only matches that us/Ipswich/Reading/Wigan/B'mth...

Watford are the interesting ones. They are well capable of winning their last 5 games (including Ipswich, Derby and QPR) and if they do they'll have 72 points and a much better goal difference. To use a golfing term - that would be the lead in the clubhouse.

If they beat Ipswich on Sat then they are in contention. If not they're out of it. I think them and Blackburn both need to win all their remaining games to have a chance.