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I think you missed my point - that is how I think the FA will interpret it. I don't think they will say he was slightly late so it doesn't matter, they will just interpret it as late and that the Newport player ended up with a broken leg so the red card will be upheld. I don't know if they have...

Can't see it being overturned. Looking at the Youtube clip Calde was late and the way his right leg swung at the ball (and missed) will be seen as reckless/serious foul play and he will be said to have used excessive force that endangered the safety of the player - and a broken leg is probably a...