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Indeed, I don't think it accounts for much in the way of depth or new signings, because it's about the teams performance. If I recall, it uses previous seasons data as well as current - though of course you'd imagine it yo be less accurate at the start. Also will be a lot of fuzziness for...

Glass has room for more beer.

It's based on the 'expected goals rating' that the author uses for his modelling. He explains it on his site but in brief, it is a combination of the quantity, type and quality of shots a team tends to take, and how often those types of shots tends to go in, in general. So it's prioritising...

Probably due to having 'tougher' fixtures left as opposed to us, I guess it makes a difference over several thousand iterations.