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Only a few minutes before Webster's mea culpa, a West Ham defender in a very similar position took the safety first approach, and blasted the ball into row Z.

I'm respectfully ignoring the first part - as I say I see xG as merely a numeric representation of quality of chances over the course of a game, and I know there are different models out there. But, when you say you address the actual point of the thread, you're still not actually doing that...

I was just about to post the Understat assessment of the game, here for those interested: https://understat.com/match/22301 My gut feel is Ferguson's header was better than a 1-in-3 chance of scoring. I would guess Ferguson would expect to do better than that. The other one that felt like a...

That's why I put my last line - I didn't want this to turn into a "xG is rubbish, they scored more goals which is all that matters" debate. Since the dawn of time, football fans have always said things like "we were the better side", "we created the better chances" and "we should have won...

I left the game feeling we'd had quite a few decent chances - particularly in the second half - and, as such, our resultant xG would be quite high, but that really wasn't the case... ... which suggests our chances weren't actually that good over the course of the entire 90 minutes. Just me...