They can only model in on what they know...
- When the virus arrived
- How infectious the disease is (each infected person infects, on average, 2-3 others)
- Data from countries further advanced than us, such as Italy and what happened in Wuhan.
Vallance estimated 55,000 cases today...
Jeremy...
One of the Imperial College modellers estimated that the number of people in the UK that have it/have had it at c50k yesterday.
That's 1 in 1,320 across the UK population.
Yesterday NSC had 4,959 users.