Over the last 6 seasons 3 sides stayed up with just 7 wins in total, 2 with 9. It's all about not getting beat. If you deny your rivals points, you stand a great chance. 2012 as an example, Bolton went down with 10 wins, while Villa stayed up by 2 pts having won just 7.
Don't think we should...
I think you can already revise down the 40 point target given 6 sides are already only on 1 ppg or less. 38 is probably going to be enough, and that might still come down as per 3 of the last 5 seasons where 34, 35 and 35 have been.
4 wins 11 draws sees us reach 40. Far from getting too hung...