How could he know? If Slovakia beat us, they get 6 points, wales beat russia, they get 6 points, pushing us down into third with 4 points. We then need to hope we're among the better third placed teams. So, we don't know whether we're through or not.
I've done my usual trick of turning the TV down and am listening to podcasts rather than growing frustrated at the inane ramblings of so called expert analysts.