Since 2009/10 5 of the 14 winners have been teams who have dropped down. Only 2 of those 14 finals have been between teams who both started in the Europa League.
It's close to impossible to predict a winner for the Europa League, as we don't know who will be relegated from the Champions League.
Plus there's the possibility of one of the 'big' teams having a terrible league season and putting all there eggs into one basket with the Europa League to get...