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The lowest they can finish is 6th. 5th will get Europa. If they lose the FA cup, they'll still get the FA cup Europa place, because City won't need it. If they win the FA cup, they'll get Europa from that. And the Conference place will still go to 7th. The Conference wouldn't go to 7th if Utd...

That is more about the bookies being greedy than about probability. We're 11/2 to finish outside the top 6. That's not 1 on 10.