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Thanks for the detailed explanation of why you hold that view. The other option is that Lockdown V3 works - hopefully - and therefore from around Saturday, infection rates fall off a cliff. Around 2 weeks after that we see a peak in Hospital admissions. By my workings that gets us to...

I'm just a parent, but they should be reviewing the schools question in 4 weeks time to see which areas could reopen - a blanket "shut until half-term" is not warranted.