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And one of West Ham and Watford would also require 13 and 12 points respectively. That's the main reason that 38 points will be plenty: it's not dependent on just one team; it requires 3 of the 4 teams below us to have run ins that are way better than their ppg so far.

Interesting. That's a hell of a run by West Ham - that was the season where Tevez's registration with them was a bit suspect, wasn't it? Not really a precedent for a situation where 38 points won't be enough for this year though, as there were only 3 teams with a ppg of <1 at the same stage...

I'd be interested in seeing what the table looked like with 8 games to go in the seasons where 38 points (and a good GD) wasn't enough. I'm sure someone with more time on their hands than me can dig it out, but I'm going to guess that there weren't 5 teams with 28 points or fewer at this stage.