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The amount of money plunged into the PL in the last ten years alone is HUGE. Looking at previous 10 shows 38 has become even more likely to see us safe. 38 points since the 09/10 seasons goes up to 90%, 35 is 50%. Points to be safe since 09/10: 31, 40, 37, 37, 34, 36, 38, 35, 34, 35

This, well done for getting the stats down, I am of the opinion that the magical 40 points mark is more likely 38 these days. I can't remember if it was Gus, Oscar or maybe even Bloom who said in the Championship they considered 2 points per game to be guaranteed promotion, I would say 1 point...