Absolutely agree with you.
If we set everyone's target to 37, then this is the PPG each team needs to achieve (and where they are now)
As we can see, everybody above the red line (us) would have to take a significant dip in overall form, and everybody below the line would need varying...
Good resource for tables by match-week
https://www.premierleague.com/matchweek/580/table
Useful article showing relegated/survived totals for PL (up to 17/18)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564
At game week 30 of the 06/07 season, the bottom end looked like this;
By the end, West Ham went on a fantastic run, and the Blades went down on 38 points, due to a poorer goal difference to Wigan (by a single goal).
Taking a look at the PPG over the final 8 games...
2.250 West Ham
1.125...