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It is worth remembering that even for No Deal there is legislation that is required to pass through Parliament to enable it to happen without massive legal ramifications. As we've seen, that takes time.

The EU want us out, if indeed we are going, by the end of 2020 as that tallies nicely with the next EU budget period (running 2021 to 2027), and obviously the maths is a lot easier if Britain isn't still sat whinging in a corner about how it's so unfair that it has to abide by it's international...

Too many things still in play to call IMHO. Tory leadership, potential Votes of Confidence, potential election being called, what Parliament will do around No Deal. Still too many things not settled to make a call.