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Not going to fall into the trap of commenting on the second point (I know it's at least partly tongue in cheek) but you're spot on with the first. Also, you've just made me think of another scenario that queers the pitch. I'm a Tory but I voted Caroline Lucas for lots of reasons and many of them...

The problem with these stats is that it assumes that voting intentions remain the same but they obviously don't so I struggle to see how you can make any meaningful conclusions.