First bit is true, second bit probably isn't. If we lose all three, we will be six or seven points behind with only a dozen to play. You can then add another half a point because of our small GD.
Remember, it took 7 games to go from top to seventh (temporarily), and after four straight...
It helps that we've barely played an away game since then.
I will get properly excited if we're within touching distance after the next three. Until then, there's that nagging caveat...