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  1. Mtoto

    [Albion] Chelsea odds on tomorrow.

    One of the advantages of decimal odds is that you can divide the decimal price into 100 to get the percentage chance it implies, and vice versa. So 3.5 implies 100/3.5 = 28.6pc chance, while a 25pc chance is 100/25 = 4 (or 3-1 in old money). Opta's model had Chelsea as 44pc chances for the...
  2. Mtoto

    [Albion] More important - Premier League or Europa

    Current best odds for a top 4 finish are 9-4, so top 5 would be around 7-4. Current best odds to win the Europa League: 14-1.
  3. Mtoto

    [Albion] RDZ's pre-Bournemouth press conference

    It's a three-horse race - the draw was a bigger runner than an AEK win (about 6-1 I think). They basically work out the draw/away odds as a function of the shortest price, so if a home team is 1-5, like we were last night, the draw/away odds will always be around 6-1 and 14-1.
  4. Mtoto

    [Other Sport] Wimbledon 2023

    Broady played exceptionally well, but Ruud said afterwards that he thought LB was a better player than him on grass, so he'd accepted at least the fair possibility of defeat before he set foot on the court. He'll never get much further than R2 with that attitude, no matter what he's seeded...
  5. Mtoto

    [Albion] Frank Lampard’s Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion *** Official Match Thread ***

    The Betfair market definitely fancies our chances:
  6. Mtoto

    [Albion] Viera has left Palace and Hodgson returns!

    The bet is for relegation, not staying up, and the current top price (for relegation) is 13-2 against. £30 returns £225 including stake. This implies they are long odds-on to stay up.
  7. Mtoto

    [Other Sport] Cheltenham Festival 2023

    You could add in Encanto Bruno for a treble if he hadn't fecked off to Chelsea.
  8. Mtoto

    [Albion] Are these the shortest odds we've ever been to win a Premier League game?

    Think that has to be the shortest price we've been. Looked back through last three seasons & shortest odds in each (Bet365) were: 21/22: 1.5 vs Norwich 20/21: 1.65 vs Sheff Utd 19/20: 1.66 vs Villa Drew all three.
  9. Mtoto

    [Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022) Thought this podcast was fascinating, Russian interviewee suggests we should already be trying to look beyond Putin to how Russia can be repaired once he's gone.
  10. Mtoto

    [Albion] Marc Cucurella *Signed For Chelsea 05/08/2022*

    That might be true if you were just looking at, say, the last 2 or 3 months, but the available evidence suggests we do the opposite - don't succumb to recency bias, look at a player's career as a whole, think about how they have progressed to date and how much more there is to come in another...
  11. Mtoto

    [Albion] Marc Cucurella *Signed For Chelsea 05/08/2022*

    True, but unless TB also has a Men In Black-style brain-wiping device to be used when they leave, they will have a very good idea of the players were are looking at now with a view to buying in 2 or 3, perhaps even 5 or 6 years' time. Which is why Ashworth jumping ship to a moneybags rival is...
  12. Mtoto

    [Albion] penalties

    That's unusually low and will probably even out, the normal rate over a season is just under 80pc (and the xG for a Premier League pen is 0.79, ie. implies 79pc success rate). That said, missing three out of eight isn't that extraordinary, given that the chance of any individual miss is 4.7...
  13. Mtoto

    [Other Sport] Tony Bloom's horses running thread

    That was the plan but it's been grounded by the weather, they are going by road instead. He reckons he might be struggling for kick-off but shouldn't be too far away.
  14. Mtoto

    [Albion] Premier League 12-13/2/22

    Slightly off-topic, but Jurgen Locadia just scored for Bochum against Bayern Munich.
  15. Mtoto

    [Other Sport] Tony Bloom's horses running thread

    Energumene declared to face Shishkin in the Clarence House at Ascot on Saturday. Potentially the race of the season, this side of Cheltenham at least, and Energumene is second-fav at around 15-8. Fwiw I think that underestimates his chance. There's nothing between them on the book (1lb on...
  16. Mtoto

    [Football] Relegation Odds 21/22 Season

    Actually no, about 7-4 top price pre-season and 2-1 the top price matched to any worthwhile money on Betfair.
  17. Mtoto

    [Albion] West Ham United vs Brighton & Hove Albion *** Official Match Thread ***

    He didn't say that at all. He said that you're entitled to your opinion, but he totally disagrees. As do I, fwiw. Just watched a really exciting & competitive half of football between two of the best teams in the country, and personally think we looked like the better side overall. It's a game...
  18. Mtoto

    [Albion] 52 points prediction on FiveThirtyEight

    For the most part, their predictions are very similar. I take a look at the six biggest European leagues every weekend and there's rarely more than 3pc difference between the Betfair price and 538. Long-term forecasts on 538 don't tend to change as rapidly as the odds can, which I tend to...
  19. Mtoto

    [Albion] 52 points prediction on FiveThirtyEight

    Not so, on 538 at least. From their "How This Works" explanation: "Shot-based expected goals are an estimate of how many goals a team “should” have scored, given the shots they took in that match. Each shot is assigned a probability of scoring based on its distance and angle from the goal, as...
  20. Mtoto

    [Other Sport] Tony Bloom's horses running thread

    Rousted leaving the stalls, pulled hard in third, finished sixth.
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